Midterm voters face a mixed economic ledger: record stock gains, but soaring fuel costs and sluggish job growth

Key points

• Job growth has been sluggish, with only 776,000 jobs created in the first 20 months, compared to 2.6 million in the same period under Biden. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%.
• Inflation has worsened, with the Consumer Price Index up 5.4% since Trump took office. Gasoline prices have surged 38%, reaching $4.28 per gallon, largely due to the war with Iran and supply disruptions.
• Consumer sentiment is at a record low of 46.3, down 25.4 points from January 2025. The University of Michigan notes that frustration over the cost of living is mounting across the political spectrum.
• The S&P 500 has risen 28.6% since January 2025, reaching a record high. Corporate profits are up 25% from 2024, driven by AI spending and tariff refunds.
• The trade deficit is down 10.4% from 2024 but has risen sharply in recent months, topping $100 billion in August. The federal debt has increased by 12.8% to over $32.5 trillion.
• Border apprehensions have dropped by 91%, and refugee admissions have fallen by nearly 90%. However, ICE detention populations have risen by 272%, and a larger share of detainees have no criminal records.

Background

This update follows our previous coverage of Trump's low approval ratings (36%) and the controversies surrounding his administration, including the raid on Rep. Ilhan Omar's home and the daylight saving time dispute. The current economic data provides a backdrop for the midterm elections, where voters are weighing the administration's performance on affordability and economic stability.

How outlets are covering it

FactCheck.org provides a neutral, data-driven overview, highlighting both the positive (stock market, crime reduction) and negative (inflation, job growth) aspects of the economy. Fox News emphasizes the affordability crisis, focusing on rising gas, housing, and utility costs as a test for Republicans, while noting that Trump supporters may still support the administration despite high prices. AP News focuses on the broader economic context leading up to the midterms, without providing specific data points in the provided text. The outlets differ in their emphasis: FactCheck.org presents a balanced view, Fox News highlights the challenges facing Republicans, and AP News provides a general overview.

Why it matters

The economic data will likely play a significant role in the midterm elections, as voters weigh the administration's performance on affordability and economic stability. The mixed results, with record stock gains but rising inflation and sluggish job growth, could lead to a divided electorate. The administration's ability to address these concerns will be crucial in determining the outcome of the elections.

What to watch

The Federal Reserve is expected to release its third-quarter GDP estimate on October 29, and the University of Michigan will release its final consumer sentiment data on October 23. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, and the outcome will likely depend on how voters perceive the administration's economic performance. The trade deficit and federal debt are expected to continue rising, and the administration's policies on immigration and trade will likely remain contentious.