Trump Blames Ukraine and Democrats for Gas Prices as US-Iran War Continues

Key points

• US average petrol prices reached $4.36 per gallon on October 5, up from $2.98 on February 28, when the US and Israel first struck Iran.
• Trump posted on Truth Social that 'Refineries' are the cause of high prices, citing Ukrainian attacks on Russian facilities and closures in 'Blue States' like California.
• Daily oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have plunged 97 percent since the war began, contradicting Trump's claim that record barrels are flowing.
• The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1982, prompting G7 nations to agree to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude.
• An AP-NORC poll found that 65 percent of Americans blame Trump's policies for higher prices, while 61 percent say the economy is worse off than when he returned to office.
• Ukraine's Ministry of Defence claims it has disabled more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity, contributing to global diesel shortages.

Background

In early September, Trump predicted that oil prices would drop below $2 per gallon only after the midterm elections, claiming the Iran war would end immediately following the vote. Economists like Paul Krugman warned that even if a peace deal were reached, high prices would persist due to intertwined supply issues, including the Russia-Ukraine war. The current situation reflects a continuation of these tensions, with the US-Iran conflict now in its seventh month and global oil markets under severe strain.

How outlets are covering it

Al Jazeera highlights the discrepancy between Trump's narrative and the data, noting that while he claims record barrels are flowing, Hormuz exports have dropped 97 percent. The outlet emphasizes the role of the G7 reserve release and the low Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels. Ukrainian Pravda focuses on the diplomatic friction, noting that Trump previously asked President Zelenskyy to slow strikes on Russian refineries, a request Zelenskyy denied in September. The Independent frames the situation as a 'rant' by Trump, emphasizing the political motivation behind the blame-shifting ahead of the midterms. All sources agree that the Iran war and Russian-Ukraine conflict are the underlying drivers of the price spike, despite Trump's attempts to deflect responsibility.

Why it matters

The rising cost of fuel impacts the broader US economy and consumer spending, potentially influencing the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections. The shift in blame from the Iran war to Ukraine and domestic policy reflects a strategic effort by the administration to manage public perception, but it may backfire if voters continue to attribute high prices to the administration's foreign policy decisions. The depletion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the need for G7 intervention indicate the severity of the global supply crisis.

What to watch

The G7 release of 100 million barrels of diesel and crude may provide temporary relief, but the long-term impact depends on the resolution of the US-Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump is expected to continue blaming Democrats and Ukraine for high prices in the lead-up to the midterms. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve may need further releases if prices continue to rise, and the AP-NORC poll suggests that public opinion remains critical of the administration's handling of the economy.