Florida Midterm Polls Show GOP Leads in Governor and Senate, but Democratic Gains in Broward and Hispanic Vote

Key points

• Byron Donalds leads David Jolly 48% to 41% statewide, with a 7-point margin of error advantage.
• Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon 50% to 40% in the U.S. Senate race.
• David Jolly leads Byron Donalds 52% to 26% in Broward County, a key Democratic stronghold.
• Hispanic voters in Florida are disapproving of Trump’s job performance 49% to 45%, reversing 2024 trends.
• Amendment 3, a property tax reduction measure, has 55% support statewide but falls short of the 60% threshold needed to pass.

Background

The 2026 midterms are being watched as a litmus test for Democratic momentum, following recent shifts in other red states. Florida, long a Republican stronghold, has seen forecasters downgrade the governor’s race from 'likely Republican' to 'lean Republican' in recent weeks. This shift follows a broader trend of Democrats gaining ground in traditionally red areas due to economic concerns and dissatisfaction with federal immigration policies. The race is particularly significant as it follows the 2024 election, where Trump won Hispanic-heavy Miami-Dade County by 11 points, a significant reversal from 2020.

How outlets are covering it

NBC News and NBC 6 South Florida highlight the statewide Republican leads, emphasizing Donalds’ financial advantage and Moody’s strong performance. However, the Sun Sentinel and Tampa Bay Times focus on Democratic gains in specific regions, such as Broward County, and the shifting sentiment among Hispanic voters. The Sun Sentinel notes that Jolly’s lead in Broward is critical for a statewide Democratic victory, while the Tampa Bay Times points out that forecasters have recently shifted the governor’s race in Democrats’ direction. There is also a divergence in views on Amendment 3, with statewide polls showing 55% support, but local polls in Broward showing lower support and significant undecided voters, particularly when warned about potential cuts to local services.

Why it matters

The Florida midterms are crucial for understanding the broader national political landscape. A Democratic victory in the governor’s race would mark a significant shift in a traditionally red state and could signal a broader 'blue wave' in the 2026 elections. The performance of Hispanic voters, who have been a key demographic in recent elections, will also be a barometer for the impact of federal immigration policies on voter sentiment. Additionally, the outcome of Amendment 3 could have significant implications for local government funding and property taxes across the state.

What to watch

The November 3 general election will determine the outcome of the governor’s and Senate races, as well as the fate of Amendment 3. In the interim, both campaigns are likely to focus on key demographics, such as Hispanic voters and those in Broward County, to sway the outcome. The Cook Political Report and other forecasters will continue to monitor polling data and may further adjust their ratings as the election approaches. Additionally, the impact of Hurricane Isaias, which is expected to hit Florida by the weekend, could influence voter turnout and campaign activities in the final days before the election.