Gerrymandering narrows the House battleground for 2026

Redistricting has further reduced the number of competitive House seats, with the presidential-margin battleground shrinking from 28 to 22 in recent maps, and six competitive seats removed in the past year. Republicans are poised to gain seats this cycle, making a large Democratic wave less likely and concentrating campaigns on a smaller battleground where primaries, not general elections, often decide outcomes. The trend, seen in states like Tennessee and California, reflects a decades-long shift that could worsen partisan governance by reducing incentives to compromise.