Midterm Eve: Democrats Favored for Senate as Trump Focuses on Washington Renovations

Key points

• Cook Political Report moved Michigan's Senate race to 'lean Democrat' despite Rep. Haley Stevens endorsing Republican Mike Rogers.
• President Trump's closing speech at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool emphasized capital projects, including the pool's repair and a new arch, over policy issues.
• Early voting reached approximately 50 million ballots, surpassing 2022 totals in every major Senate battleground, with higher Democratic participation in several states.
• The Supreme Court denied the Trump administration's request to set aside 20,000 California ballots alleged to be from noncitizens, ending the legal challenge hours before Election Day.
• Republicans are urging high turnout to avoid a 'wipeout,' while Democrats are campaigning on affordability and corruption, with polls showing leads in seven key Senate races.

Background

Prior to Election Day, polling and betting markets indicated Democrats were strong favorites for the House, with the Senate race remaining tight but trending toward a Democratic majority. Trump's approval rating had dropped to 37%, driving competitiveness in traditionally red states. Democrats needed to win four seats to secure the Senate, while Republicans faced a difficult path to retain control. The 2026 cycle has been marked by high spending, with the top 20 donors contributing roughly $2 billion to federal races.

How outlets are covering it

The Washington Post and The New York Times highlight the Democratic advantage in polls and early voting, noting that Trump's focus on renovations, such as the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, contrasts with voter concerns about the cost of living. MS NOW reports on voter frustration in Ohio and the impact of the Stevens endorsement on Michigan voters, while also covering the Supreme Court's rejection of the California ballot segregation bid. BBC emphasizes the global context of the Iran war and its impact on oil prices, as well as the backlash against AI data centers, which has become a bipartisan issue. All sources agree on the Democratic lead in key races but differ in emphasis: The Post and NYT focus on the Senate math and early voting, MS NOW on voter sentiment and legal battles, and BBC on broader economic and geopolitical factors.

Why it matters

The outcome of the midterms will determine the balance of power in Congress for the remainder of Trump's presidency. A Democratic victory in the Senate could lead to increased oversight and investigations, while a Republican hold would allow the administration to continue its agenda with fewer legislative hurdles. The election also serves as a referendum on Trump's economic policies, including tariffs and the Iran war, which have driven up costs for voters. The Supreme Court's decision on California ballots sets a precedent for election integrity and federal-state relations in future cycles.

What to watch

Election Day results will be closely watched, particularly in the seven key Senate battlegrounds. California's slow ballot counting process may delay final results, as the state allows mail-in ballots to be counted if postmarked by Election Day and received by November 10. Post-election, Democrats are expected to launch investigations into Trump administration actions, while Republicans may focus on defending their policies. The outcome will also influence the 2028 presidential race, with figures like Josh Shapiro and Gavin Newsom potentially emerging as candidates.