Polls Show Trump Approval at Historic Low, Cementing Democratic Midterm Advantage

Key points

• Trump’s approval rating stands at 33% among adults and 38% among likely voters, with 66% disapproving, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.
• Democrats hold an eight-point lead in the generic congressional ballot among registered and likely voters, a significant improvement from July.
• Economic approval for Trump has fallen to 28%, with 74% of Americans disapproving of his handling of the economy and 79% disapproving of his management of the cost of living.
• Gasoline affordability perceptions have flipped since February, with 71% now saying it is unaffordable, up from 71% who said it was affordable before the Iran war began.
• Democrats are favored to control both the House and Senate, with 47% of voters preferring Democratic control of the House and 46% for the Senate, compared to 38% favoring Republicans for both.

Background

Recent archive coverage from October 2026 indicated a widening Democratic lead in the midterms, driven by rising prices and low approval ratings for President Trump. Earlier polls in September showed Trump’s approval hitting record lows, with analysts projecting Democrats would likely win control of both the House and Senate. The current data confirms these trends, with economic strain and the Iran conflict cited as primary drivers of voter dissatisfaction.

How outlets are covering it

The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll highlights a record-low approval rating for Trump and a clear Democratic edge in the House race, emphasizing economic and Iran-related issues. The AP-NORC poll corroborates the economic focus, with 85% of voters citing the economy as a top issue, and notes a strong desire for political change. Al Jazeera reports on widespread voter frustration and a preference for Democratic control of Congress, while The New Republic discusses the accuracy of polling data, noting that Fox News and New York Times polls align with other major surveys, suggesting the Democratic advantage is robust. Polling experts like Natalie Jackson argue that the Democratic lead is likely accurate, with the main uncertainty being the behavior of non-MAGA Republicans and turnout rates.

Why it matters

The midterm elections will determine the balance of power in Congress, with significant implications for President Trump’s ability to advance his agenda. A Democratic victory in the House would provide a check on his policies, while a loss could solidify his control. The economic and foreign policy issues driving voter dissatisfaction are likely to shape the political landscape for years to come, with potential long-term effects on party alignment and voter behavior.

What to watch

The final weeks before the election will focus on turnout and mobilization efforts, particularly among non-MAGA Republicans and independents. Campaigns will likely emphasize economic issues and the Iran conflict, with Republicans attempting to counter the Democratic narrative of economic mismanagement. The outcome of key Senate races in states like Texas, Ohio, and Alaska will be crucial in determining the overall balance of power in Congress.