South Carolina Senate Race Ties at 48% in Final Week

Key points

• New York Times/Siena poll shows Andrews and Graham tied at 48% among likely voters.
• Andrews leads independents 57% to 37% and has endorsements from former Republican Gov. David Beasley.
• Graham, appointed after her brother Lindsey died, faces criticism for lacking experience; 51% of voters say she is unqualified.
• Trump campaigned in South Carolina last week and returns Thursday to support Graham.
• Fox News moved South Carolina from Lean R to Toss-up, noting the Senate majority is still undecided.

Background

South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998. Darline Graham was appointed to the seat in July after her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, died. She entered the race at Trump’s urging without prior elected office. Recent polls in other red states, such as Kansas and Florida, also show tighter contests than expected, reflecting broader Democratic gains in the 2026 midterms.

How outlets are covering it

The Guardian and CNN emphasize Andrews’ strength among independents and her medical background, noting that GOP attempts to label her extreme have not resonated. Fox News highlights the national context, arguing that while Democrats lead in the House, the Senate remains a toss-up due to conservative leanings in battleground states. MS NOW notes the significant endorsement from former Republican Governor David Beasley, which underscores internal GOP divisions, as Congressman Ralph Norman has refused to campaign for Graham.

Why it matters

The South Carolina race is a bellwether for Republican vulnerability in deep-red states. If Democrats win here, it could signal a broader shift in the Senate majority. The outcome will also test the effectiveness of Trump’s campaign efforts and the impact of candidate experience on voters in traditionally conservative areas.

What to watch

Trump is scheduled to campaign in South Carolina again on Thursday. The election is on November 3, 2026. Polls in other states, including Ohio and Texas, will also determine the final Senate majority. Republicans are spending heavily in South Carolina to prevent a loss in a state they have dominated for decades.