California Wealth Tax Support Collapses as Billionaire Opposition Outspends Backers 10-to-1
Support for California's Proposition 40, a one-time 5% tax on billionaires, has dropped below 50% in the final week before the November 3 election. A UC Berkeley poll shows 51% of likely voters oppose the measure, while 42% support it, reversing a narrow lead from six weeks prior. The decline coincides with a massive spending campaign by billionaire opponents, who have contributed nearly $368 million to defeat the tax, compared to $36 million from supporters. Simultaneously, Proposition 39, a voter ID and citizenship verification measure, faces opposition from nearly 60% of likely voters. While Proposition 40's prospects dim, related measures Propositions 41 and 42, designed to nullify the wealth tax, also see rising opposition, though they remain close. The wealth tax debate is part of a broader national trend, with Democrats in multiple states proposing similar levies, though concerns about taxpayer flight and revenue shortfalls persist.
Key points
- Proposition 40 support fell to 42% from 52% in September, with 51% now opposing the one-time 5% tax on California billionaires.
- Billionaire opponents spent nearly $368 million against the tax, while supporters raised only $36 million, a 10-to-1 disparity.
- Proposition 39, requiring voter ID and citizenship verification, faces opposition from nearly 60% of likely voters, with 38% support.
- Propositions 41 and 42, designed to nullify Proposition 40 if passed, also see rising opposition but remain within polling margins of error.
- The wealth tax debate extends beyond California, with Democrats in Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, and Washington proposing similar levies, though concerns about taxpayer flight and revenue shortfalls persist.
Background
California's Proposition 40, a one-time 5% tax on billionaires, was crafted by the SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West union to offset $100 billion in federal healthcare cuts. The measure has been a focal point of the 2026 midterm election, with significant spending from both sides. Earlier polls in September showed a narrow lead for Proposition 40, but recent data indicates a sharp decline in support. The wealth tax debate is part of a broader national trend, with Democrats in multiple states proposing similar levies, though concerns about taxpayer flight and revenue shortfalls persist. The measure is also part of a complex set of ballot initiatives, including Propositions 41 and 42, designed to nullify the wealth tax if passed.
How outlets are covering it
The Los Angeles Times and UC Berkeley poll emphasize the sharp decline in support for Proposition 40, attributing it to a massive spending campaign by billionaire opponents. The Sacramento Bee highlights the tight margins for Proposition 45, a permitting reform measure, and the general unhappiness among California voters. City Journal focuses on the broader national trend of wealth tax proposals, noting concerns about taxpayer flight and revenue shortfalls. Politico emphasizes the unprecedented spending by billionaire opponents, with Google co-founder Sergey Brin as the largest benefactor. The Sacramento Bee also notes the opposition to Proposition 39, a voter ID measure, and the general pessimism among California voters about the state's direction. The Los Angeles Times and UC Berkeley poll highlight the generational and partisan divides in support for Proposition 40, with younger and Democratic voters more supportive, while older and Republican voters oppose it. The Sacramento Bee notes the tight margins for Proposition 45, reflecting divides among voters who value environmental protections but are frustrated by high housing and utility costs.
Why it matters
The decline in support for Proposition 40 signals a potential shift in the national debate on wealth taxes, with concerns about taxpayer flight and revenue shortfalls gaining traction. The massive spending by billionaire opponents highlights the influence of wealthy individuals in shaping public policy. The opposition to Proposition 39 reflects broader concerns about election security and voter access. The wealth tax debate is part of a broader national trend, with Democrats in multiple states proposing similar levies, though concerns about taxpayer flight and revenue shortfalls persist. The outcome of these measures could have significant implications for state finances and the broader political landscape.
What to watch
The November 3 election will determine the fate of Proposition 40, Proposition 39, and related measures. If Proposition 40 fails, the wealth tax debate may continue in other states, with Democrats in Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, and Washington proposing similar levies. The outcome of Proposition 39 will impact voter ID and citizenship verification requirements in California. The general pessimism among California voters about the state's direction may influence future political decisions and policy proposals. The wealth tax debate is likely to remain a prominent issue in the 2028 presidential primary, with Governor Gavin Newsom advocating for a federal wealth tax.
- Support dwindles for wealth tax, voter ID ballot measures, new poll shows Los Angeles Times
- Opinion | California Is Voting on the Wrong Wealth Tax The New York Times
- Democrats’ Wealth-Tax Proposals Won’t End on Election Day City Journal
- Billionaires shatter spending record to fight California wealth tax Politico
- Support for billionaire tax, permitting reform measures both drop in new polling Sacramento Bee
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