Trump's tariff stance stalls USMCA and spark uncertainty in North American trade

President Trump’s repeated hints that he might terminate or withdraw from the USMCA leave the $1+ trillion North American trade pact in limbo, forcing protracted negotiations with Canada and Mexico and creating ongoing uncertainty for automakers, farmers, and other exporters. The six-year review is due July 1; without a renewal, the pact would sunset in 2036 and invite a renewed, but unsettled, bargaining process that could disrupt supply chains and raise prices. While U.S. policymakers on both sides of the aisle still broadly back the deal, Trump’s stance is viewed as leverage that complicates investment decisions amid inflation and tariff volatility. Canada and Mexico prefer stability and predictable tariff levels, but the current rhetoric risks keeping trade policy in limbo for years.