California Braces for a Potentially Record-Setting El Niño Winter

Forecasters warn a potentially historic super El Niño could develop by fall, with NOAA predicting a >90% chance of El Niño and up to a 50% chance it will be strong; if it arrives, Southern California could see a wetter winter that replenishes water supplies but raises the risk of floods, debris flows and coastal erosion, even as it may reduce wildfire risk. Forecasters caution that even strong El Niños don’t always deliver predictable weather, citing past events (1982-83, 1997-98) that varied widely in rainfall. The pattern is tied to warmer Pacific waters and altered jet streams, and climate change could be intensifying swings; impacts may extend to marine life as warmer seas affect plankton and sea lion rookeries along the Channel Islands. More clarity is expected between May and June as models improve.