A Decade On, Brexit's Subtle Drag on UK Growth

Ten years after the Brexit vote, economists broadly agree the UK economy has faced a persistent drag on growth. While some worst‑case fears didn’t materialize, estimates of foregone output range from about 2% to as much as 8%, driven by weaker investment, productivity and living standards. EU trade remains costlier and more cumbersome, though services—especially financial services—remain a bright spot and London stays a global hub. New non‑EU trade deals are modest in impact compared with EU trade. Immigration surged after Brexit, and political leaders remain reluctant to rejoin the EU, given divisions and uncertainty about future access. Overall, Brexit has reshaped the economy: it retains strengths in services and finance, but comes with a clear, ongoing price in slower growth and higher policy trade‑offs.