Wisconsin Polls Missed Crowley’s Upset as Leavitt Departs and Paramount Threatens California Exit

Key points

• David Crowley won Wisconsin’s Democratic governor primary by less than one percentage point against Francesca Hong, despite polls showing Hong leading by nearly 20 points.
• Karoline Leavitt will step down as White House press secretary at the end of August to spend more time with her children, becoming the youngest person to hold the role.
• Paramount CEO David Ellison threatened to move the company out of California by October 1 if California Attorney General Rob Bonta does not open settlement talks regarding the $110 billion Warner Bros. Discovery merger.
• Polling experts cited high undecided voter rates, open primary structures, and late-breaking campaign shifts as reasons for the massive miss in Wisconsin and similar errors in Michigan.
• Leavitt’s departure follows the recent exit of deputy press secretary Abigail Jackson, marking a significant shift in the White House communications team.

Background

Recent archive coverage highlights that Paramount’s relocation threat is tied to ticking fees of approximately $7 million per day from October 1 until a March 2027 trial, with potential new locations including Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee. The Writers Guild of America has condemned the threat, arguing it underscores the need to block the merger. Additionally, earlier reports noted that California Attorney General Rob Bonta characterized the threat as blackmail, insisting any settlement must be structural rather than behavioral.

How outlets are covering it

NBC News emphasized the complexity of polling errors, noting that undecided voters and demographic variables contributed to the 20-point miss in Wisconsin. Axios highlighted the chaotic final week of the campaign, where Crowley gained support rapidly while Hong struggled with past social media remarks and lacked TV advertising in the final days. The Hill focused on the structural issues of open primaries and nonresponse bias, noting that pollsters struggled to model who would actually show up to vote. All outlets agreed that the polls failed to capture the rapid shift in voter sentiment, but they differed on the primary cause: NBC cited general unpredictability, Axios pointed to specific campaign missteps by Hong, and The Hill blamed methodological flaws in sampling and turnout modeling.

Why it matters

The Wisconsin primary result raises serious questions about the reliability of polling in low-information or volatile primary environments, potentially affecting future election predictions. Leavitt’s departure signals a shift in the White House’s public messaging strategy ahead of the midterms. Meanwhile, the Paramount threat could reshape the media landscape in California and set a precedent for corporate leverage in antitrust disputes, impacting thousands of jobs and the broader entertainment industry.

What to watch

California Attorney General Rob Bonta is expected to decide whether to open settlement talks with Paramount before the October 1 deadline. The White House will announce a replacement for Karoline Leavitt as press secretary. Polling organizations will likely review their methodologies for primary elections in light of the Wisconsin and Michigan misses. The Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger trial is scheduled for March 2027.