Final Midterm Push: Trump Rallies in Red States as Alaska Ballot Scandal and Michigan Rift Intensify

Key points

• Trump is making his final in-person campaign stops in Dubuque, Iowa, and Salina, Kansas, after initially canceling them for tele-rallies. He is urging voters to treat the election as a referendum on his administration, despite declining approval ratings among rural Americans.
• The Alaska Senate race is embroiled in a controversy over a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan, whom the Justice Department and Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy allege was recruited by Democrats to confuse voters. Incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan has vowed to accept the results but warned against 'stolen' elections, while the DOJ seeks to preserve ballots ranking the decoy candidate.
• Early voting totals exceed 53 million, with registered Democrats casting more ballots than Republicans in Iowa and Kansas. In Iowa, Democrats hold a 46% share of early votes compared to 34% for Republicans, while in Kansas, the Republican lead has narrowed significantly compared to the 2022 cycle.
• A public feud between Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and former primary rival Rep. Haley Stevens has escalated, with El-Sayed’s campaign asking Stevens to skip a joint event. Trump has amplified attacks against El-Sayed, while House Speaker Mike Johnson predicts a Republican upset despite historical trends.
• The White House has falsely claimed that shifting election results are abnormal, contradicting explanations from the Bipartisan Policy Center and PBS News that results often take days or weeks to finalize due to ranked-choice voting and mail ballot verification.

Background

The 2026 midterms are being framed as a referendum on President Trump’s second term, with Republicans facing a defensive posture in states they won in 2024. Democrats are seeking to capitalize on voter frustration with the economy, tariffs, and the war in Iran, while Republicans rely on base enthusiasm and Trump’s popularity. The Alaska ballot controversy echoes historical 'same-name' ballot stacking incidents, such as the 2024 Washington gubernatorial primary. The Michigan rift follows a contentious primary, with Stevens and El-Sayed trading barbs over a controversial ad on foreign aid.

How outlets are covering it

CNN emphasizes the procedural normality of delayed results and the early vote data showing Democratic strength in Iowa and Kansas, while also highlighting the Alaska controversy and Michigan rift. Fox News focuses on the Alaska 'decoy' scandal as a 'Democrat con job' and frames the midterms as a fight against socialism, with Trump accusing Democrats of voter fraud. The Guardian highlights the economic impact of tariffs and the war in Iran on rural voters, noting Trump’s approval drop among rural Americans. U.S. News & World Report underscores the defensive posture of Republicans and the competitive nature of races in states Trump previously dominated, such as Iowa and Kansas.

Why it matters

The outcome of the midterms will determine whether Democrats can check Trump’s consolidation of power, with control of the Senate and House hanging in the balance. The Alaska controversy could delay certification and spark legal challenges, while the Michigan rift risks dividing the Democratic coalition in a critical state. Early voting trends suggest a potential Democratic surge, but Republicans are betting on turnout and Trump’s base to maintain majorities.

What to watch

Election Day is November 3, with results potentially taking days or weeks to finalize in states like Alaska due to ranked-choice voting and mail ballot verification. The Justice Department’s investigation into the Alaska ballot controversy may lead to legal challenges or certification delays. The Michigan rift could impact turnout and unity in the final days, while Trump’s rallies in Iowa and Kansas aim to boost Republican turnout in competitive races.