Final Weekend Chaos: Michigan Feud, Alaska Scandal, and Record Early Votes Shape 2026 Midterms

Key points

• In Michigan, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed’s campaign has barred Rep. Haley Stevens from its events, causing uncertainty over a Sunday unity gathering in Detroit. The feud stems from disagreements over Israel policy and an outside ad, with Stevens’ fiancé endorsing the Republican candidate, Mike Rogers.
• FBI agents have visited the homes of donors to Daniel J. Sullivan, a non-incumbent candidate in Alaska’s Senate race, as part of a criminal investigation into alleged voter confusion tactics by the Democratic campaign of Mary Peltola. The Justice Department is also seeking to block certification of the Alaska results if the incumbent Dan Sullivan loses.
• More than 50 million Americans have voted early, surpassing 2022 midterm totals. Texas leads with over 7.4 million early ballots, though polls show a tight race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. Senator Ted Cruz warned that Republicans could lose all statewide races in Texas if early vote trends continue.
• President Trump reversed his decision to skip in-person rallies, confirming appearances in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. He also issued a late endorsement for Florida Rep. María Elvira Salazar, reversing previous criticism. The Justice Department indicated it may appeal a California mail-in ballot case to the Supreme Court before Election Day.
• In Scottsdale, Arizona, local elections are being influenced by a dispute over 'direct potable reuse' of wastewater, with candidates debating the safety and necessity of the technology amid water scarcity concerns.

Background

This final weekend follows weeks of intense campaigning in battleground states, including Michigan, Texas, and Ohio, where Democrats are within striking distance of regaining Senate control. Previous coverage noted that Republicans held a 53-47 Senate majority but faced competitive races in traditionally red states due to low presidential approval and economic concerns. The current chaos in Michigan and Alaska represents a sharp escalation from earlier strategic tours by party leaders like John Thune and John Barrasso, who focused on defensive campaigning in conservative strongholds. The record early vote totals suggest a high level of voter engagement, potentially offsetting the impact of late-stage political disputes and legal challenges.

How outlets are covering it

The New York Times emphasizes the internal Democratic conflict in Michigan as a critical threat to Senate control, highlighting the personal and policy rifts between El-Sayed and Stevens. Politico focuses on the strategic implications of the feud, noting that El-Sayed’s campaign wants Stevens to stay away to avoid distracting from central issues. CNN provides a broader view of the national landscape, detailing the FBI’s involvement in Alaska, the tight polls in Texas, and the record early vote numbers, while also noting Trump’s shifting rally schedule. The Guardian highlights the legal and administrative efforts by the Trump administration to interfere with election processes, including the Justice Department’s appeal in California and the Alaska investigation. All sources agree on the high stakes of the midterms but differ in emphasis: NYT and Politico focus on party unity, CNN on data and legal actions, and The Guardian on systemic interference.

Why it matters

The outcome of these races will determine control of the U.S. Senate and House, with Democrats needing to flip at least four Senate seats to regain the majority. The Michigan race is seen as the most critical for Republicans, while Texas and Alaska are pivotal for Democrats. The legal challenges in Alaska and California could delay certification of results, potentially causing chaos in seating the new Congress. The record early vote totals suggest a highly engaged electorate, but the impact of late-stage disputes and legal maneuvers remains uncertain. The broader implications include the potential for a 'blue tsunami' or a Republican hold, depending on final-day turnout and the resolution of legal and political conflicts.

What to watch

The key events to watch are the Sunday unity event in Detroit, where the presence or absence of Stevens and El-Sayed will signal the state of Democratic unity. In Alaska, the outcome of the FBI investigation and the Justice Department’s legal challenges will determine if the election results are certified on time. In Texas, the final vote count will reveal if early voting trends favor Democrats or if Republicans can mobilize on Election Day. The Supreme Court’s potential involvement in the California case could set a precedent for future election disputes. Finally, the results in swing states like Iowa, Kansas, and New Hampshire will determine the balance of power in Congress.