Trump Approval Plummets to 31% as Democrats Widen Midterm Lead

Key points

Reuters/Ipsos reports Trump’s approval at 31%, a new low for the pollster, with Democrats leading the generic House ballot by 12 points.

NBC News and The Washington Post polls show approval ratings of 34% and 33% respectively, both second-term lows, with high disapproval rates among voters.

Economic anxiety is central, with 44% of Americans saying their financial situation is worse than a year ago, and 71% viewing gasoline as unaffordable due to the Iran war.

Democrats are now more trusted than Republicans to handle the economy, a shift not seen in a decade, while Republicans face a turnout challenge among non-MAGA supporters.

Background

This decline follows a steady downward trend in Trump’s approval ratings throughout 2026, with earlier polls in September and October already showing record lows driven by economic concerns and the Iran conflict. The current data confirms a deepening dissatisfaction among voters, particularly regarding the cost of living and inflation, which has intensified in the weeks leading up to the November 3 midterms.

How outlets are covering it

While all three outlets agree on the historic low of Trump’s approval, they emphasize different aspects of the political landscape. Reuters/Ipsos highlights the 12-point Democratic lead in the generic ballot as a direct consequence of the approval drop. NBC News focuses on the broader national mood, noting that 51% of respondents 'strongly disapprove' of Trump and that 52% view his administration as 'more corrupt' than predecessors. The Washington Post emphasizes the economic impact, noting that 48% of Americans are financially worse off than when Trump took office, and that Democrats are now more trusted on the economy for the first time since 2014. All sources agree that the Iran war and rising gas prices are key drivers of voter dissatisfaction, but The Post places greater weight on the long-term economic damage, while NBC highlights the perception of corruption and the shift in voter trust toward Democrats on economic issues.

Why it matters

The drop in Trump’s approval rating signals a significant shift in the political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms, with Democrats gaining a clear advantage in congressional races. The economic anxiety and dissatisfaction with the Iran conflict are likely to influence voter turnout and decision-making, potentially leading to a loss of Republican majorities in Congress. This trend could reshape the balance of power in Washington and impact future policy decisions, particularly on economic and foreign policy issues.

What to watch

With early voting underway in several states, the focus will be on voter turnout, particularly among Republicans who are less certain to vote. The outcome of the midterms will depend on how many of Trump’s 2024 voters cast ballots, as well as the ability of Democrats to maintain their lead in competitive districts. The economic situation and the impact of the Iran war on gas prices will continue to be key factors in the final weeks of the campaign.