Iran’s post-fatwa gamble: will Tehran rush to a nuclear weapon?

Iran’s leadership shift amid war pressure and hardline gains has reignited talk of reversing the long-standing nuclear doctrine. With the new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at the helm and the IRGC tightening its grip, experts say the regime could abandon the nuclear fatwa and pursue a weapon, leveraging Iran’s stockpile of more than 400 kilograms of enriched uranium. A crude device could be possible and would serve as a deterrent, but it might spark a regional arms race—most notably with Saudi Arabia—while deterrence remains far from guaranteed and many details about Iran’s intentions remain uncertain.