Ethiopia’s Northern Conflict Escalates as TPLF Alliance Seizes Airports and Accuses External Backing

Key points

• The TPLF and allied groups, including the Amhara Fano National Movement and Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, launched a multi-front offensive starting September 22-23, 2026.
• Rebel forces seized control of airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire, leading to the cancellation of all flights to the Tigray region.
• Ethiopia’s army chief, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of supporting the rebel alliance, claiming they are supplying and coordinating the opposition.
• The TPLF stated it is waging a 'defensive war' in response to federal government drone strikes, which intensified in late September.
• At least 150,000 people have been displaced in the Afar region, and telecommunications have been disrupted across Tigray, hindering reporting and aid.
• The conflict threatens the Semera-Djibouti trade route, which handles nearly all of Ethiopia’s international cargo, including fuel.

Background

This escalation follows the collapse of the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, which ended a civil war that killed an estimated 600,000 people. The TPLF retook power in the Tigray region in May 2026, leading to a series of drone strikes by the federal government. A new seven-group 'Alliance for Survival' was announced on September 20, 2026, aiming to overthrow Abiy Ahmed’s government. Previous archive coverage noted growing tensions and mutual accusations between the federal government and the TPLF, with international mediators urging a return to talks.

How outlets are covering it

France 24 emphasizes the external dimension of the conflict, highlighting Army Chief Jula’s accusations against Eritrea and Sudan. ACLED provides a detailed analysis of the military fronts, noting that while the federal government currently holds the advantage, the TPLF’s advance in Afar could threaten the Djibouti corridor. ACLED also points out internal discord within the rebel alliance, with some groups denying membership or stating their goals are not to restart armed struggle. International Crisis Group places primary responsibility for the escalation on the TPLF, noting that the federal government is hesitant to launch a full-scale ground invasion but may be forced to do so. Crisis Group also warns of the risk of interstate conflict with Eritrea and Sudan, given the complex regional alliances.

Why it matters

The renewed conflict threatens to destabilize the Horn of Africa, potentially drawing in Eritrea, Sudan, and other regional powers. The disruption of the Djibouti trade corridor could have severe economic consequences for Ethiopia and the region. The humanitarian situation is critical, with mass displacement and limited access to aid. The conflict also raises concerns about a return to the high-intensity warfare seen in 2020-2022, with significant civilian casualties and widespread destruction.

What to watch

International mediators, including the African Union and the United Nations, are urging both sides to de-escalate and return to negotiations. The federal government is likely to increase its military response to halt the rebel offensives, while the TPLF and its allies may continue to expand their control in the north. The situation remains fluid, with the potential for further escalation and interstate conflict.