Markets skeptical of rapid Strait of Hormuz reopening after Iran-U.S. talks
TL;DR
Traders on Kalshi assign only about a 38% chance that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by July 1 (normal = seven-day average of 60 ships/day per IMF PortWatch), with odds rising to 60% for Aug 1; the White House denies any formal framework with Iran despite reports of a draft MOU, and sentiment has cooled since weekend highs that had July odds near 50%.
- Traders are skeptical of Iran timeline for Strait of Hormuz reopening CNBC
- What happens when the war really ends CNN
- Even After a Strait of Hormuz Deal, Moving 1,500 Ships Won’t Be Easy The New York Times
- The power struggle in the world’s narrow seas Financial Times
- Hormuz Is a Warning for the Indo-Pacific Foreign Affairs
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