Ukraine strikes push Russia’s gasoline crunch into a market squeeze, data shows

Meduza analyzes SPIMEX trading data from January–early July 2026 to quantify Russia’s gasoline shortage driven by Ukrainian strikes on refineries. About 35 refineries are operating of 39 commissioned; strikes damaged primary processing units, sharply reducing delivery-base volumes (e.g., Moscow ~4,400–400 tons/day; Taneco ~56% drop; Norsi ~63%; Kinef ~80%), while overall exchange volumes for gasoline and diesel fell from ~118–150k tons/day early 2026 to ~80k in June and prices rose about 146% from January. Russia has begun importing gasoline (at least 60,000 tons from India) and is tightening export restrictions; the exchange quota was cut from 15% to 10% in July 2026. Repairs are slow due to sanctions and parts shortages, and the crisis shows no immediate end.