Eritrea and Ethiopia sever ties as regional conflict intensifies

Key points

• Eritrea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the severance of all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia, citing Addis Ababa’s expulsion of Eritrean diplomats and closure of the Ethiopian embassy in Asmara.
• Ethiopia declared 10 Eritrean diplomats, including the charge d’affaires, persona non grata and ordered their departure within 48 hours, accusing them of activities threatening national security.
• Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat, prompting Egypt to reciprocate by declaring an Ethiopian embassy counsellor persona non grata and ordering his departure within 48 hours.
• Fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and a coalition of armed opposition groups, led by the TPLF, has intensified, with explosions reported in Addis Ababa and clashes in the northern Afar region.
• The United States Representatives Ilhan Omar, Jim McGovern, and John Garamendi called on all parties to recommit to peace negotiations, warning that the conflict threatens the stability of the entire region.

Background

This diplomatic rupture follows a week of renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia, where a new seven-group rebel alliance led by the TPLF launched coordinated offensives against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. The conflict has spread into the Amhara and Afar regions, with reports of drone strikes and seized airports. Ethiopia’s army chief previously accused Eritrea and Sudan of backing the rebels, a claim Eritrea has denied. The current escalation marks the most significant deterioration in relations between the two neighbors since the end of the 2020-2022 civil war, despite earlier efforts by Abiy Ahmed to normalize ties with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki.

How outlets are covering it

Al Jazeera emphasizes the reciprocal nature of the diplomatic severance, highlighting Eritrea’s statement that it had 'no option but to reciprocate in kind' after Ethiopia’s expulsion of its diplomats. The outlet also notes Eritrea’s accusation that Ethiopia has been pursuing an 'agenda of incessant hostility' and has hosted and armed Eritrean opposition groups. In contrast, the secondary source from BBC, while primarily focused on other regional conflicts, briefly references the Ethiopia-Eritria dispute as a major escalation, underscoring the broader regional instability. The BBC source does not provide detailed commentary on the diplomatic severance but frames it within the context of ongoing conflicts in Yemen and other parts of the region, suggesting a pattern of escalating tensions across the Horn of Africa and beyond.

Why it matters

The severance of diplomatic ties between Eritrea and Ethiopia signals a significant escalation in regional tensions, potentially drawing neighboring states into the conflict. The tit-for-tat expulsions involving Egypt indicate that the crisis is spreading beyond the immediate conflict zone, threatening broader regional stability. The intensifying fighting in Ethiopia, combined with external accusations of support for rebel groups, raises concerns about a wider regional war, particularly given the history of conflict in the area and the involvement of multiple countries. The situation also highlights the fragility of peace in the Horn of Africa and the potential for spillover effects on neighboring countries and international trade routes.

What to watch

The immediate next steps will likely involve further diplomatic maneuvers and potential military escalations. Ethiopia and Eritrea may continue to exchange accusations and take reciprocal actions, while the fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and the rebel alliance could intensify. International mediators, including the African Union and the United States, may push for renewed peace negotiations, but the current hostility suggests that such efforts could be difficult. The situation may also lead to further expulsions of diplomats and potential involvement of other regional powers, such as Sudan and Egypt, in the conflict.