Ethiopian forces claim near-total control of Tigray as capital sees blasts

Key points

• The commander of the pro-government Tigray Peace Forces (TPF) declared on social media that Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) forces have been wiped out, though Al Jazeera could not independently verify this claim.
• Residents in Addis Ababa reported explosions near military headquarters and the secret service base, which an opposition source attributed to drone strikes, following a new ban on drone flights in the capital.
• Ethiopia has expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Asmara, accusing Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan of supporting the rebel alliance; Eritrea and Egypt have denied these allegations.
• The conflict has spread from Tigray into the Amhara and Afar regions, with a medic in Alamata reporting 52 civilian deaths in three days, while tens of thousands have fled to neighboring areas.
• The African Union has called for maximum restraint, warning that the diplomatic spats and military escalation threaten regional peace and stability.

Background

This escalation follows the collapse of the 2022 Pretoria peace deal, which ended a two-year civil war estimated to have killed 600,000 people. A new seven-group rebel alliance, including the TPLF and the Fano militia, was formed on September 20 with the goal of ousting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Previous tensions over Eritrean Red Sea ports and the 2022 war have fueled current diplomatic and military hostilities.

How outlets are covering it

Al Jazeera emphasizes the pro-government claim of total victory in Tigray and the humanitarian crisis, noting that the TPLF still holds some towns and maintains links with Eritrea. BBC focuses on the security implications in Addis Ababa, highlighting the drone ban and unconfirmed blasts, while also detailing the diplomatic fallout and Eritrea’s denial of involvement. Both outlets agree on the spread of fighting to Amhara and Afar but differ in emphasis: Al Jazeera highlights the humanitarian access challenges, while BBC details the specific locations of explosions and the lack of official government response.

Why it matters

The conflict threatens to reignite a civil war that previously caused massive loss of life, disrupts regional stability through diplomatic ruptures with Eritrea and Egypt, and creates a severe humanitarian crisis for millions in Tigray, with potential spillover into neighboring countries and the Horn of Africa.

What to watch

Monitor for official confirmation of the TPF’s claims, further diplomatic expulsions, and humanitarian access updates. Watch for any escalation in Addis Ababa or changes in the drone ban policy.