IMF Raises and Lowers Russia's Growth Forecast Amid Economic Uncertainty

The IMF raised its 2023 economic growth forecast for Russia, citing strong fiscal measures taken by the government, including deficit-fueled spending related to the war in Ukraine. However, the IMF predicts that the Russian economy will be about 7% smaller by 2027 than pre-war forecasts would have indicated. The IMF expects Russia's budget deficit to reach 6.2% of GDP this year, almost three times the size of last year's deficit, and Russia's current account surplus is predicted to decline sharply due to weaker terms of trade, lower energy volumes, and a recovery of imports.