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economics2.22 min read

US wholesale inflation cools? Not exactly—PPI up 4.7% YoY in July with mixed monthly moves

11 days agoSource: Forex Factory
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Japan Signals Near-Term BOJ Rate Hike to Shore Up Yen
economics
34.14 min12 days ago

Japan Signals Near-Term BOJ Rate Hike to Shore Up Yen

Japan’s government, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, is said to back a near-term Bank of Japan rate increase (likely September or October) as yen weakness pressures prices and to amplify the impact of the recent US-Japan currency intervention, while emphasizing that monetary policy decisions remain with the BOJ and should be coordinated with the government to reach the 2% inflation target.

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Unemployment Falls, Yet Participation Slips: Interpreting June’s Mixed Jobs Report
economics1 month ago

Unemployment Falls, Yet Participation Slips: Interpreting June’s Mixed Jobs Report

June payrolls rose by 57,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% as about 720,000 people left the labor force, pulling the participation rate to 61.5% (the lowest since March 2021) and prime‑age participation to 83.3%. Long‑term unemployment remained elevated at around 1.9 million. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed 7.6 million openings but a hiring rate of 3.3% with little turnover. Economists warn the unemployment drop may reflect people exiting the workforce rather than stronger hiring, leaving the labor market uneven and possibly noise-driven, with anomalies like declines in 25–34-year-olds and softer leisure/hospitality hiring.

June Jobs Preview: Hiring Holds Steady as Wage Growth Trails Inflation
economics1 month ago

June Jobs Preview: Hiring Holds Steady as Wage Growth Trails Inflation

The June payroll report is expected to show a fourth straight month of steady hiring (about 115,000 jobs), a 4.3% unemployment rate, and wage growth near 3.5%, signaling a stabilizing labor market but wage gains still lag inflation. Analysts warn of risks from summer distortions and divergent forecasts—some see stronger payrolls while others expect modest gains—yet the overall picture points to resilience without rapid wage-driven inflation.

Policy discipline urged as AI boom meets debt and market fragility
economics1 month ago

Policy discipline urged as AI boom meets debt and market fragility

The BIS warns that inflation, rising financial vulnerabilities and record public debt—amid AI-driven investment and evolving non-bank risk—pose growing threats to global growth. It urges coordinated policy action to maintain price stability, shore up financial stability beyond banks, and pursue fiscal sustainability and structural reforms; delaying steps could raise costs and worsen future trade-offs.

China Says EU Trade Freeze Can Be Weathered, CCTV Account Claims
economics1 month ago

China Says EU Trade Freeze Can Be Weathered, CCTV Account Claims

China asserts it can endure a further deterioration or even a freeze in EU trade, via a CCTV-affiliated account that argues the EU altered tactics after an EV-subsidy probe and is weakening its normative power. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic plans talks with Chinese minister Wang Wentao in Brussels amid a roughly €360 billion trade gap and concerns over subsidized Chinese imports, while China says firms are deprioritizing Europe even as investments in NEVs and automotive continue—leaving the outlook for deeper cooperation uncertain if the EU keeps a hard line.

iPhone Era Linked to Faster Decline in Birth Rates, New Study Finds
economics2 months ago

iPhone Era Linked to Faster Decline in Birth Rates, New Study Finds

A Middlebury College study exploiting AT&T’s early iPhone exclusivity (2007–2011) finds birth rates fell faster in counties with more AT&T coverage, suggesting smartphones may influence social behavior and reduce fertility, though causation isn’t established and other factors could contribute; the finding adds to broader policy discussions on aging populations and impacts of technology on society.

Food Insecurity Deepens Consumer Pessimism in a Split Economy
economics2 months ago

Food Insecurity Deepens Consumer Pessimism in a Split Economy

A New York Fed analysis using the Survey of Consumer Expectations finds rising food insecurity since 2020—disproportionately among lower‑income, less‑educated households and those with children—alongside a sharp drop in consumer optimism and job-finding prospects. Despite solid macro indicators, sentiment remains weak, reflecting a K‑shaped economy where the bottom half faces renewed financial strain. The study links higher insecurity to deteriorating outlooks, while acknowledging that inflation, cost of living, and policy changes (e.g., SNAP) also drive pessimism and that multiple factors influence consumer expectations even among those not reporting food insecurity.

A Brief Fed Tenure, a Lasting Prompt: Miran Paves the Way for Warsh’s Agenda
economics3 months ago

A Brief Fed Tenure, a Lasting Prompt: Miran Paves the Way for Warsh’s Agenda

Outgoing Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who pressed for aggressive rate cuts and deregulation-driven disinflation, exits after a brief tenure that underscored the Fed’s committee-driven process. Miran dissented at every meeting and argues for front-loaded cuts, while attributing part of inflation trends to supply shocks and software-inflation quirks. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh shares some of Miran’s ideas, suggesting a shift toward focusing on underlying inflation, but the Fed’s changes are likely to be slow and incremental as the board forges a consensus.

Fed Finds Steady U.S. Household Finances in 2025 Amid Softening Job Market and AI Uptake
economics3 months ago

Fed Finds Steady U.S. Household Finances in 2025 Amid Softening Job Market and AI Uptake

The Federal Reserve Board’s Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2025, based on the SHED survey from Oct. 2025, shows overall financial well-being holding steady near 2024 levels (73% report being okay or comfortable; 63% could cover a $400 emergency), with persistent price concerns (price increases remain a top worry, major concern down to 53%). The labor market appears solid but softer than last year (42% worry about finding/keeping a job; 8% quit; 7% laid off). AI adoption in the workplace is rising—about one in four workers used generative AI in the prior month, with 81% saying it saves time and could boost careers. The full report, data, and visuals are available from the Fed."