All articles tagged with #economic growth
Goldman Sachs economists say the strong consumer boost from tax refunds in Q2 may be short‑lived, projecting real consumer spending growth slow to about 1–1.5% in the second half as real cash flow stagnates, even as GDP rose 1.5% in Q2 and retailer demand showed broad strength. The bank notes Q2 sales gains were helped by refunds and signals from retailers will be tested in upcoming earnings from Home Depot, Lowe's, Walmart and Target.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh vows to 'get monetary policy right' and defeat inflation while praising the economy's resilience and highlighting AI-driven investment as a major growth driver; he also announced five task forces to review Fed operations, signaling a shift toward leveraging productivity gains from AI in policy and outlook.
A synthesis of Raj Chetty’s work shows the share of children who out-earn their parents at the same age dropped from about 90% for those born in 1940 to roughly 50% for those born in the 1980s. The piece frames this as a debate: is the fall driven more by slower overall growth or by more unequal sharing of that growth? Chetty argues mobility hinges on broadly shared growth, while some scholars contend faster growth could restore mobility. The findings carry significant policy implications for reviving the American dream.
At a Senate Finance hearing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argues that faster growth and tighter control of spending can stabilize Social Security without tax increases or benefit cuts, anchored by a 3‑3‑3 framework: about 3% growth, roughly 3% of GDP in deficits, and 3 million barrels per day more domestic energy. Democrats contend deficits and trust‑fund shortfalls remain a risk and growth alone may not solve the problem, while some Republicans hint at alternative Social Security accounts as part of the debate.
At a Toronto summit, US and international progressives study Canada’s growth-first governance under PM Mark Carney, arguing that delivering tangible services and higher wages can win voters more than climate-focused rhetoric; attendees, including Barack Obama, Pete Buttigieg, and Elissa Slotkin, weigh faster policy delivery, trade diversification, and the tension between climate aims and economic growth.
The U.S. economy expanded at a 2% pace in the first quarter of 2026, driven by stronger business investment and a rebound in government spending, while consumers cooled amid rising prices as inflation rose.
The IMF’s latest forecast says the war in Iran is slowing global growth and driving up prices, with impact uneven across nations and a potential energy crisis. Growth is seen around 3.1% this year, but could drop toward 2% if fighting persists, while inflation could rise to about 5.4% due to higher energy costs and disrupted markets.
The Commerce Department revised U.S. fourth-quarter GDP growth down to 0.5%, signaling a softer end to the year and potentially influencing the 2026 outlook and Federal Reserve policy as spending and investment cooled.
Entergy Louisiana and Meta announce two agreements totaling about $2.65 billion in customer benefits over 20 years to support the Northeast Louisiana hyperscale data center, with Meta covering the full cost of the infrastructure and new commitments for energy efficiency, renewable energy deployment, and grid improvements. The project is expected to create thousands of jobs, increase tax revenues, strengthen grid reliability, and position Louisiana as a high-tech growth leader while maintaining affordable rates.
New Commerce Department data trim Q4 2025 GDP growth to 0.7% annualized, far slower than the prior 1.4% advance estimate, while January inflation remains stubborn with core PCE at 3.1% and overall PCE near 2.8%, signaling persistent price pressures even as oil prices rise with the Iran conflict; the weaker momentum before the conflict complicates the Fed’s effort to cool inflation without tipping the economy into recession, and markets priced in potential rate cuts later in the year.
Real GDP rose at a 0.7% annual rate in Q4 2025, down from 4.4% in Q3, helped by consumer spending and investment but dragged by government spending and exports; imports fell, and 2025 real GDP increased 2.1%. The October government shutdown and missing CPI data affected the release, with BEA’s next update scheduled for April 9, 2026 and data tables available online.
Los Angeles Times columnist Michael Hiltzik argues that U.S. economic momentum is weakening under Trump, citing a February jobs shortfall (-92,000) and sustained employment declines since 2024, tariffs that failed to deliver promised gains, rising gas prices driven by Iran-related conflict, and slowing GDP forecasts. With inflation elevated and consumer sentiment down, the near-term outlook looks notably dim despite political promises.
U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto met in Washington to reaffirm and advance the reciprocal trade agreement, directing ministers to implement the pact and boost economic security and growth as they pursue a 'NEW GOLDEN AGE' of the U.S.-Indonesia alliance.
The US economy is expanding at a robust pace while job openings and hiring have fallen to multi-year lows, leaving some workers unemployed or underemployed despite strong growth. Analysts point to factors like AI-driven efficiency, outsourcing, immigration policy, and fiscal uncertainty as possible causes, with experts cautioning the trend could be temporary or longer-lasting.
Tariffs are effectively a tax on U.S. consumption, potentially slowing growth by raising costs for consumers and firms. The S&P 500 is trading with a CAPE ratio above 39, a level historically followed by weak returns and drawdowns, a pattern echoing the dot-com crash. While earnings may accelerate in 2025–26, investors are advised to be cautious, consider preserving cash, and tilt portfolios toward long-term wealth rather than chasing volatility.