Morocco’s PAM wins parliamentary plurality but faces coalition hurdles amid record-low turnout

Key points

• PAM won 97 seats, falling short of the 198 needed for a majority, and must form a coalition to govern.
• Turnout was 38 percent among 15.8 million registered voters, the second-lowest since 1999 and down from 51 percent in 2021.
• The PJD quadrupled its seats to 54 but is expected to remain in opposition due to longstanding rivalry with PAM.
• PAM’s coalition partner RNI lost ground, falling from 102 to 66 seats, while Istiqlal placed third.
• Potential prime minister candidates include Fouzi Lekjaa and Fatima Ezzahra Mansouri, the latter being a potential first woman to hold the post.

Background

Morocco’s ruling coalition faced public tensions before the September 23 vote, with leaked recordings highlighting budget disputes and post-election power-sharing concerns. Campaigns focused on cost of living, jobs, healthcare, and education, amid pressure from youth-led protests and the deadly Ceuta border incident in July. The 2021 election saw PJD’s seats collapse to 13, while PAM emerged as a counterweight to the Islamist party.

Why it matters

The low turnout and fragmented results signal deep public disengagement, potentially complicating governance as Morocco prepares for the 2030 World Cup and billions in related investments. Coalition dynamics will shape policy on economic reforms and social services, while the PJD’s resurgence may influence opposition strategies.

What to watch

King Mohammed VI will appoint a prime minister from PAM, likely leading to coalition negotiations with Istiqlal and other parties. The new government will oversee World Cup preparations and address economic grievances, while the PJD prepares for an opposition role. Turnout trends and coalition stability will be key indicators of political stability.