Forecast Signals a 100% Chance of a Record-Strong El Niño This Year

European forecast models now indicate a 100% chance of a “super” El Niño forming by November, potentially the strongest on record. The pattern is expected to dampen Atlantic hurricane activity while bringing wetter fall and winter conditions to the southern U.S. Atlantic tropical activity is likely below average, though Eastern Pacific activity could rise; the season is forecast to have about 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes, roughly near the seasonal average. Forecasters caution that the most significant effects may not be felt until later in the season, with implications for rainfall and drought relief in the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions.