UK and France terminate 'one in, one out' migrant pilot after limited results

Key points

• The UK Home Office confirmed on September 30 that the 'one in, one out' pilot, launched in August 2025, is no longer processing new cases, with flights continuing for existing cases.
• Between August 2025 and June 2026, 1,087 people were returned to France and 1,117 were transferred to the UK, representing only 4% of the 27,920 small-boat arrivals in the UK during that time.
• Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood stated the average cost per return was £56,000 (€65,500), while Prime Minister Andy Burnham blamed Brexit for reduced EU cooperation in stopping crossings.
• France’s Interior Ministry confirmed discussions on exiting the agreement, with Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez previously advocating for a broader European approach to migration control.
• The UK government plans to use lessons from the pilot to accelerate returns of migrants with no right to remain, while pairing tougher enforcement with legal asylum routes.

Background

The pilot was an extension of a 2025 agreement, with the UK previously reporting a 44% drop in small-boat arrivals due to enforcement and disrupted smuggling networks. The scheme was a first-of-its-kind exchange mechanism, previously resisted by France until 2024, and was seen as a key tool in the UK’s strategy to deter dangerous Channel crossings.

How outlets are covering it

Euronews and BBC emphasize the scheme’s limited impact, with only 4% of arrivals processed and high per-person costs, while noting the UK’s desire to continue but inability to scale. AP News highlights the scrapping of the deal as a failure to reduce Channel crossings. Le Monde focuses on France’s preference for an EU-wide solution and its eagerness to end the bilateral arrangement, contrasting with the UK’s push for continuation. All sources agree on the pilot’s termination but differ on the primary reason: UK sources cite scale and cost, while French sources emphasize the need for a broader European framework.

Why it matters

The end of the pilot signals a shift in UK-France migration cooperation, potentially leading to increased small-boat crossings unless new legal routes and enforcement measures are implemented. It also highlights the challenges of post-Brexit migration control and the push for EU-wide solutions to address irregular migration.

What to watch

The UK and France are negotiating the terms of exit from the agreement, with the UK planning to use lessons from the pilot to accelerate returns. France is pushing for an EU-wide approach, and the UK is pairing tougher enforcement with legal asylum routes to deter smuggling. The impact on small-boat crossings in the coming months will be a key indicator of the new strategy's effectiveness.