RBA faces close call on interest rate decision with outlier call for rate hike.
TL;DR
The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to meet on May 2, with the consensus expectation for a hold decision on interest rates. However, Commonwealth Bank of Australia is predicting a 25bp rate hike, with a 55% chance of an increase and a 45% probability of no change. The RBA is expected to retain its forecast for inflation to return to the top of the target band by mid-2025, despite Q1 23 CPI printing a little softer than the RBA’s implied profile from the February SMP. Governor Lowe will deliver a speech at the RBA Board dinner on May 2, and an updated set of economic forecasts will be published on May 6 in the May Statement on Monetary Policy.
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