Tag

Monetary Policy

All articles tagged with #monetary policy

Fed Minutes Reveal Consensus for One More 2026 Hike, but No Timeline
economy2 days ago

Fed Minutes Reveal Consensus for One More 2026 Hike, but No Timeline

Federal Reserve officials expect one additional interest rate hike before the end of 2026 to combat persistent inflation, but the minutes from the September meeting show no consensus on timing. While 16 of 18 officials projected another increase, many viewed the recent 25-basis-point hike as insurance against sticky prices rather than a necessary tightening of policy. The Fed will decide on rates again on October 28 and December 9, with current data suggesting a pause in October.

economy2 days ago

Fed Minutes Confirm Expectation for One More Hike by Year-End

The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes reveal that most policymakers expect one additional interest rate hike before the end of 2026. The central bank raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase in three years, to combat persistent inflation. While the September decision was unanimous, recent economic data has cooled expectations for an immediate October hike, with markets now pricing an 81% probability of a pause.

Fed Minutes Signal One More Hike by Year-End, Not a Hiking Cycle
economy2 days ago

Fed Minutes Signal One More Hike by Year-End, Not a Hiking Cycle

Federal Reserve minutes from the September meeting indicate that most officials expect one additional interest rate hike before the end of 2026, but not a series of hikes. The central bank raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in September, its first increase in three years, to combat inflation that has remained above the 2% target for over five years. While 16 of 18 FOMC members who submitted forecasts anticipate another hike, the timing remains uncertain, with the next decision scheduled for October 28 and December 9. Recent inflation data, including a core PCE reading of 3% in August, has tempered expectations for an immediate October hike, leading markets to price in a pause before a potential December move.

Hassett Urges Powell to Step Aside as Fed Leadership Tensions Persist
politics5 days ago

Hassett Urges Powell to Step Aside as Fed Leadership Tensions Persist

Kevin Hassett, a senior aide to President Donald Trump, has publicly called for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to leave the central bank’s board. This statement follows recent friction between the White House and the Fed regarding interest rate decisions and the independence of the central bank. The comment signals continued political pressure on the Fed’s leadership despite recent internal shifts within the institution.

Fed Vice Chair Cautions Against Premature Rate Decisions Amid Persistent Inflation
economy8 days ago

Fed Vice Chair Cautions Against Premature Rate Decisions Amid Persistent Inflation

The Federal Reserve’s vice chair has warned that inflation remains elevated, emphasizing that policymakers need time to assess data before adjusting interest rates. This stance aligns with recent Fed communications highlighting sticky price pressures from tariffs, energy costs, and AI investment, while markets continue to debate the timing of potential rate hikes.

politics8 days ago

Powell’s Fed Tenure Extends as Trump’s Legal Threats Persist

Jerome Powell is likely to remain on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors until January 2028, despite President Trump’s long-standing desire for his removal. The recent Inspector General report, which cleared Powell of criminal misconduct in the headquarters renovation scandal, removed a key pretext for his ouster. However, Trump has not conceded, instead directing Attorney General Todd Blanche to determine next steps regarding the project’s costs. This ongoing tension, combined with a recent cooling in rhetoric between the White House and the Fed, suggests Powell will stay through his current term, having previously stated he remained only due to legal threats.

China Manufacturing PMI Rebounds to 50.1 Amid New Stimulus Measures
economy9 days ago

China Manufacturing PMI Rebounds to 50.1 Amid New Stimulus Measures

China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.1 in September, ending a two-month contraction. This return to expansion was driven by activity in high-tech and equipment sectors, alongside a non-manufacturing PMI climb to 50.2. Concurrently, Beijing announced targeted fiscal and monetary measures, including mortgage subsidies and expanded lending quotas, to support growth. Economists describe these moves as a 'mini stimulus' sufficient to meet the annual growth target but insufficient to address deeper structural issues like weak domestic consumption and rising energy costs.

Fed Officials Split on Urgency: Williams Rejects Hike, Barr Warns of More Hikes
economy10 days ago

Fed Officials Split on Urgency: Williams Rejects Hike, Barr Warns of More Hikes

New York Fed President John Williams has dismissed the need for an immediate rate hike, stating there is 'no need for urgency' in policy adjustments. This contrasts with Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr, who warned that further rate increases are likely necessary to bring inflation back to the 2% target. While the economy shows resilience with 2% GDP growth in the first half of 2026, persistent inflation driven by AI investment, tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts remains a central challenge for the central bank.

Warsh’s Fed pivot hinges on market signals, not traditional rate frameworks
economy14 days ago

Warsh’s Fed pivot hinges on market signals, not traditional rate frameworks

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is implementing a new monetary policy regime that prioritizes broad financial conditions over traditional neutral rate frameworks. While he has quickly adjusted communication styles and secured a unanimous rate hike, his efforts to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet are stalled by high inflation and internal resistance. Market indicators suggest further rate increases are likely if credit remains loose.

Schnabel's Early ECB Exit Triggers Major Leadership Reshuffle
global-economy15 days ago

Schnabel's Early ECB Exit Triggers Major Leadership Reshuffle

Isabel Schnabel is leaving the European Central Bank early to join the IMF, triggering a significant leadership reshuffle. Her departure accelerates discussions on the succession of President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip Lane. The move removes a key hawkish voice from the ECB just as inflation and energy prices remain volatile.

Swiss National Bank holds rates at 0% despite global tightening, citing low inflation and strong franc
economy15 days ago

Swiss National Bank holds rates at 0% despite global tightening, citing low inflation and strong franc

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its key interest rate at 0% on September 24, 2026, diverging from major peers like the ECB and Fed who have recently hiked rates. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel stated that the decision was based on Switzerland's low inflation, which stood at 0.8% in August, and the deflationary pressure exerted by the strong Swiss franc. While the bank signaled it remains willing to intervene in foreign exchange markets to prevent excessive currency appreciation, it noted that medium-term inflationary pressure has increased only slightly due to higher energy costs. Market traders are currently pricing a near 50-50 chance of a rate hike in December, with over 90% odds of a hike by early 2027.

BOJ hikes rates to 1.25% as inflation risk prompts normalization
economy21 days ago

BOJ hikes rates to 1.25% as inflation risk prompts normalization

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, signaling a quicker rate hike cycle amid inflation risks that could push inflation back toward the 2% target. The decision, by a 7-2 vote with two dissents, followed expectations that inflation will stabilize near 2%, while the yen weakened and 10-year JGB yields fell slightly; August headline inflation was 1.9% with core at 1.7%. The move continues Japan’s monetary normalization begun in March 2024 and comes amid external calls to tighten policy.