China’s Potential Role as Guarantor in Ending the US-Iran Conflict

Key points

• The US-Iran war has persisted for over seven months, with Trump initially expecting a 100-hour resolution. Current diplomatic efforts by Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan lack the leverage to force a settlement.
• Trump is poised to escalate the conflict after the November 3 midterm elections, potentially targeting Iranian energy infrastructure and seeking to dismantle the theocracy, which risks a global oil price spike above $150 per barrel.
• China has signaled openness to mediation, having previously guaranteed the 2023 Iran-Saudi normalization deal. Beijing’s leverage over both sides could facilitate a permanent ceasefire, the lifting of the US blockade, and a nuclear agreement based on the 2015 JCPOA.
• Proposed Chinese-led terms include a regional ceasefire, environmental fees for the Strait of Hormuz managed by a new UN agency, and enhanced IAEA inspections to cap uranium enrichment at 3.67%.

Background

This development follows months of escalating tensions, including Trump’s prediction that the war would end after the midterms and Iran’s warnings of a 'decisive war' if truce conditions are rejected. Previous analyses suggested a pragmatic exit for the US, but the current stalemate has intensified the risk of uncontrolled escalation.

Why it matters

The potential involvement of China in mediating the US-Iran conflict could prevent a global economic crisis and nuclear escalation. It represents a shift in US foreign policy, where cooperation with a strategic rival may be necessary to resolve a regional war that threatens global energy stability and security.

What to watch

Watch for official Chinese diplomatic moves following the November midterms, as well as any shifts in US posture regarding the blockade of Iran. The success of the proposed framework depends on Trump’s willingness to accept a Chinese-guaranteed deal and Iran’s acceptance of enhanced nuclear inspections.