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Oil Markets

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Piper Sandler: Hormuz closure could persist for months, pushing oil to fresh highs
business1 hour ago

Piper Sandler: Hormuz closure could persist for months, pushing oil to fresh highs

Piper Sandler says the Strait of Hormuz will remain largely closed for months, threatening urgent supply shortages and potentially driving oil prices to new highs this summer. The warning follows U.S. self-defense strikes in southern Iran amid ongoing talk of a deal, with Iran warning navigation through the strait will come at a cost. The bank doubts traffic will return to 50% of pre-crisis levels soon, suggesting extended disruption with ripple effects on global supply chains. WTI hovered around $94 after earlier spikes.

IEA Warns Oil Markets Could Enter a Red Zone This Summer
business5 days ago

IEA Warns Oil Markets Could Enter a Red Zone This Summer

IEA chief Fatih Birol warned that with global stocks shrinking and summer demand rising amid the Iran war, oil markets could enter a 'red zone' by July or August unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens and Middle East supply returns; the IEA has already coordinated a record 400 million-barrel reserve release and stands ready to act further, with the biggest impacts expected in developing Asia and Africa as prices climb.

Interactive Map Reveals State-by-State Rise in U.S. Gas Prices
business19 days ago

Interactive Map Reveals State-by-State Rise in U.S. Gas Prices

Business Insider released an interactive map to compare state gas prices as the national average rose from $2.98 to over $4 per gallon since February; California has topped $6, while Oklahoma and Kansas have logged the lowest averages. Analysts point to global supply tensions from Strait of Hormuz disruptions, the seasonal switch to a more expensive summer blend, and Midwest refinery outages as drivers, with some forecasts for this summer ranging from about $3.50 to $5.50 per gallon.

War winds down, Europe braces for jet-fuel crunch
energy20 days ago

War winds down, Europe braces for jet-fuel crunch

Fortune reports that even as the Iran conflict appears to cool, Europe faces a looming jet-fuel shortage this summer, with Goldman Sachs warning that global oil supply could shrink to roughly 98 days of demand and inventories in several regions remain tight, potentially forcing travel restrictions and industry adjustments while the Strait of Hormuz blockade and wider geopolitical tensions persist.

Hormuz Strait Standoff Risks Reigniting All-Out War
world21 days ago

Hormuz Strait Standoff Risks Reigniting All-Out War

Control of the Strait of Hormuz is the crisis’s focal point as a four-week ceasefire frays; despite talks in Islamabad, Washington and Tehran remain entrenched in red lines, raising the risk of miscalculation and a slide back into all-out war. A US escort of ships provoked Iran, which has signaled it will not return to the old status quo, and closure would shock global oil markets and fertiliser supplies. The UAE, leaning closer to the US-Israel axis, braces for a broader regional confrontation, while Trump’s mixed strategy has left no clear exit from the escalating standoff.

Endurance Will Decide the Hormuz Clash, Not Who Strikes Hardest
world1 month ago

Endurance Will Decide the Hormuz Clash, Not Who Strikes Hardest

Azeem Ibrahim argues that the Iran conflict around the Strait of Hormuz will be decided by who can endure the pressure longer, not by who inflicts the most damage. With most Hormuz traffic non-Iranian, the US blockade risks broad energy fallout and has seen some ships bypass it, while Iran leverages its long-term capacity to absorb pain and may seek a durable deterrent that could include nuclear considerations. The conflict could escalate to infrastructure targets and involve Russia and China, complicating any negotiated path; a settlement would require concessions on Iran’s nuclear ambitions and sanctions relief, though such an outcome seems increasingly unlikely.

CERAWeek Briefing: Blas Warns of Oil Shortfalls and Market Turbulence
energy1 month ago

CERAWeek Briefing: Blas Warns of Oil Shortfalls and Market Turbulence

Bloomberg’s Javier Blas, in a Columbia Energy Exchange episode from CERAWeek, explains how Iran-related supply disruptions and White House verbal interventions are keeping oil near $100 while refined products and LNG rise faster, raises the risk of demand destruction if the crisis persists, and discusses the gap between paper vs. physical barrels, Gulf geopolitics, Europe’s gas squeeze, and implications for renewables, coal, and nuclear—along with policy tools like SPR releases.

Iran-Gulf Tensions Surge as Attacks, Interceptions, and Hormuz Standstill Emerge
world2 months ago

Iran-Gulf Tensions Surge as Attacks, Interceptions, and Hormuz Standstill Emerge

As Iran continues its campaign against Gulf states, Saudi Arabia says missiles and drones were intercepted while Kuwait reports port damage; Tehran also claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed and says ships were turned back, signaling a broader traffic disruption. Iran is moving to formalize transit fees for vessels, drawing international concern. Concurrently, President Trump says talks with Iran are going very well and has extended a pause on strikes against energy sites to April 6, with European officials signaling possible direct talks amid market jitters from the war uncertainty.

Trump says Iran begging to strike a deal as war widens and IRGC commander killed
world2 months ago

Trump says Iran begging to strike a deal as war widens and IRGC commander killed

Live coverage tracks a widening US-Israel-Iran crisis: Trump says Iran is begging to make a deal as Tehran responds to a 15-point peace plan with its own conditions; Iran’s IRGC navy commander Alireza Tangsiri was killed in an Israeli airstrike, with Netanyahu promising continued attacks; talks are moving through intermediaries while skepticism grows, markets react to the turmoil, and Houthis warn of further actions as regional tensions escalate.

energy2 months ago

Chevron CEO: Iran-driven oil shock hits markets harder than Russia-Ukraine

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said at CERAWeek that Iran-related attacks and the broader Middle East war have damaged global oil markets more than the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and inventories and supply chains won’t rebound quickly even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens; Asia faces diesel and jet-fuel shortages, LNG and fertilizer deliveries are disrupted, and while officials expect the disruption to be short-term, producers are urged to ramp up output.

US SPR Drawdowns Hit Practical and Legal Limits
business2 months ago

US SPR Drawdowns Hit Practical and Legal Limits

The piece explains that while the U.S. could consider another release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to soothe prices, legal and physical constraints make abundant withdrawals unlikely: the government cannot draw down below about 252 million barrels, current stock sits around 244 million after large draws, and the salt caverns require a practical floor near 150–160 million barrels to avoid damage, leaving only limited, politically sensitive options for further withdrawals.

Iran War Triggers a Global Energy Crunch and Economic Ripples
world2 months ago

Iran War Triggers a Global Energy Crunch and Economic Ripples

The Iran conflict is disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening energy supplies and lifting oil and gas prices, prompting countries to ration energy and curb demand with measures ranging from Bangladesh closing universities to South Korea capping gas prices, Thailand encouraging remote work, and the Philippines and Pakistan adopting shorter workweeks. Asia faces the sharpest impact, with Europe and Japan watching and weighing price controls, while China could gain long‑term from higher prices and a shift toward coal and renewables as the global economy absorbs this new shock in the 2020s.

US Reinforces Offshore Force Near Strait of Hormuz as Iran Tensions Escalate
world2 months ago

US Reinforces Offshore Force Near Strait of Hormuz as Iran Tensions Escalate

The Pentagon ordered Marines and amphibious ships toward the Middle East to bolster a crisis-response posture near the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating Iran-related attacks on shipping and broader U.S.-Israeli strikes. The deployment, including elements of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard the USS Tripoli, aims to enable rapid maritime security, evacuations, and limited operations without large-scale ground forces, while signaling a shift in Marine posture away from the Western Pacific. Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy, with disruptions pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifting war-risk insurance costs for ships.

White House weighs 30-day Jones Act waiver to ease energy flows
business2 months ago

White House weighs 30-day Jones Act waiver to ease energy flows

The White House is considering a limited 30-day waiver of the Jones Act to allow more flexible movement of energy products between U.S. ports, a move that could provide some relief to gasoline prices, though experts say any impact would likely be modest amid broader supply- and market-driven factors, including Iran-related disruptions and a planned release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.