Ethiopia’s New Term Begins With Red Sea Demands Amid Tigray War

Key points

• Abiy Ahmed was sworn in for a new five-year term on Monday, during which he stated that Ethiopia would work to secure an outlet to the sea based on the principle of 'give and take'.
• Ethiopia lost its direct access to the Red Sea in 1993 when Eritrea became independent and took the port of Assab; since then, Ethiopia has relied on the port of Djibouti.
• Neighboring countries, including Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia, met in Egypt’s New Alamein to issue a joint declaration stating that the governance of the Red Sea is the exclusive responsibility of coastal states.
• Renewed fighting between federal forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) began on September 23, with government forces recently retaking the regional capital, Mekelle.
• Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud indicated that Somalia does not object to Ethiopia gaining access through Somali territory, provided the two nations engage in official negotiations.

Background

The current tensions are part of a broader pattern of instability in the Horn of Africa. Previous coverage noted that Ethiopia’s push for maritime access has long been a source of friction, particularly with Eritrea, which cut diplomatic ties with Addis Ababa recently after Ethiopia expelled Eritrean diplomats. Additionally, the region has seen heightened maritime tensions due to Houthi activities in the Red Sea, including the seizure of key coastal areas and attacks on shipping, which have impacted global energy markets and shipping routes.

How outlets are covering it

While AP News and Al Jazeera focus on the diplomatic rejection of Ethiopia’s demands by coastal states, Middle East Eye highlights the role of the United Arab Emirates in influencing Eritrean policy and notes a previous memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland. Africanews emphasizes the military dimension, quoting Abiy’s vow to maintain air superiority and preemptive action against rebels in Tigray. There is a clear divergence between Addis Ababa’s view that sea access is a matter of civilizational necessity and the neighboring states’ insistence on exclusive coastal jurisdiction.

Why it matters

The dispute over Red Sea access threatens to destabilize the Horn of Africa, potentially turning a local conflict in Tigray into a wider regional war involving multiple nations. It also intersects with critical global shipping routes, as tensions in the Red Sea can disrupt energy flows and trade, affecting international markets and security dynamics in the Middle East and Africa.

What to watch

Diplomatic negotiations between Ethiopia and Somalia may begin, as Mogadishu has expressed openness to conditional access. Meanwhile, military operations in Tigray are expected to continue as federal forces consolidate control. The African Union and United Nations are likely to continue urging peaceful resolution to prevent further escalation among neighboring states.