Leaked Russian Blueprint Details Deepening Economic and Nuclear Ties with Iran

Key points

• The document, titled 'Plan for Cooperation Between the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran for 2024-2026,' was approved in September 2024 and assigns specific deadlines to ministries and state companies.
• Financial provisions aim to increase bilateral trade in national currencies from 68% to 71% by 2026 and develop central bank digital currencies for cross-border settlements, reducing reliance on SWIFT.
• Rosatom is tasked with maintaining and expanding the Bushehr nuclear plant, including fuel delivery for Unit 1 and construction of Units 2 and 3, with Russian specialists returning to the site in September 2026.
• The plan includes provisions for Iranian production of Russian aircraft components, with a target for prototype production by December 2026, and advances in the Rasht-Astara railway link.
• Energy projects in the Shadegan, Kish, and North Pars fields are included, with some financing details marked as confidential, while the overall coordination is overseen by Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev, a relative of President Putin.

Background

This roadmap follows earlier reports of covert Russian military assistance to Iran, including the development of supersonic cruise missiles, and reflects a broader trend of Moscow and Tehran deepening ties to counter Western pressure. The document predates the current conflict between the US and Iran, but several initiatives have since materialized, such as the shift to national currency settlements and the resumption of work at Bushehr.

Why it matters

The document reveals a state-backed strategy to build economic redundancy and bypass sanctions, potentially strengthening Iran's resilience against Western pressure and complicating US efforts to isolate Tehran. The involvement of high-level Russian officials and state entities indicates a long-term commitment to this partnership.

What to watch

The US is expected to continue monitoring and disrupting alternative financial channels, while Russia and Iran may further advance the outlined projects, including the Rasht-Astara railway and aircraft component production, if not hindered by the ongoing conflict.