Turkey holds back as Israel strikes Syria ahead of Netanyahu’s election

Key points

• Israel struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib Governorate, approximately 60-70 km from the Turkish border, targeting runways and alleged Turkish radar and air defense systems.
• Turkey responded with restraint, avoiding direct confrontation with Israel until after the October general election, believing Netanyahu was escalating tensions to boost his campaign.
• US Special Envoy Tom Barrack called the strike an 'unnecessary escalation' and suggested Israel may have tried to bait Turkey, noting Washington was not warned in advance.
• Syria denied plans to host a permanent Turkish base at Abu al-Duhur, stating Turkish personnel were only visiting for training and that the base was largely deserted.
• Israel’s Mossad Director Roman Gofman met with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani in Jordan on August 23 to de-escalate tensions and discuss security arrangements.

Background

Israel and Turkey had previously reached a deconfliction understanding in Baku, agreeing on a dividing line in Syria to manage security zones. Israel had also bombed the T4 airbase in Homs in April 2025 to prevent Turkish drone operations against ISIS. The current strike follows a period of heightened tensions, including Israeli operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, and a deterioration in Netanyahu’s relationship with US President Donald Trump.

How outlets are covering it

Middle East Eye emphasizes Turkey’s strategic restraint and its view that Netanyahu is using the strike for political gain, noting Ankara’s close ties with US envoy Tom Barrack. CNN highlights the debate over whether the strike was a genuine security response or a political move, citing Israeli officials who claim intelligence on Turkish deployment and critics who question the timing. INSS argues that Israel’s red line approach risks unnecessary escalation and recommends a diplomatic track to manage Turkish presence, noting that Turkey is a NATO ally and that Syria is diversifying its partnerships. All sources agree that the strike was provocative and that the US played a key role in de-escalation efforts.

Why it matters

The strike tests the limits of Israel’s freedom of action in Syria and risks a direct confrontation with Turkey, a key US ally. It also highlights the fragility of post-Assad Syria and the complex interplay of regional powers, including the US, Turkey, and Israel, in shaping the country’s future. The outcome of the October Israeli election may determine whether tensions escalate or de-escalate.

What to watch

Diplomatic talks between Israel and Syria are expected to resume under US mediation to establish a deconfliction mechanism. Turkey may increase its military presence in Syria if Israel continues to oppose its activities. The October Israeli election will likely determine whether Netanyahu’s government remains in power and how it handles regional security issues.