
Iran presses Hormuz sovereignty as tensions surge toward renewed conflict
Iran is pressing for formal sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, framing control of the waterway as its primary deterrent and warning that recognition would disrupt global shipping. The ISW-CTP update cites preparatory moves suggesting a renewed confrontation, including an IRGC infiltration attempt on Bubiyan Island, Mahshahr Port drills, and Iranian aircraft repositioning to Pakistan/Afghanistan to shield assets. Negotiations, if resumed, reportedly hinge on five preconditions: a complete end to the war on all fronts, sanctions relief, unfrozen assets, compensation, and formal recognition of Hormuz rights. The United States and allies continue pressure to safeguard shipping, with covert strikes by the UAE and Saudi Arabia reportedly occurring against Iran, while Iran consolidates internal power around the IRGC. The report also notes Israel’s FPV drone countermeasures, Hezbollah activity near Lebanon, and Iraqi PMF efforts framed as sovereignty signaling, painting a volatile, pre-war landscape ahead of potential renewed conflict.












