Trump Administration Drafts Post-War Blueprint to Contain Iran and Expand Abraham Accords

Key points

• The strategy includes three main pillars: building a regional alignment to deter Iran, addressing the consequences of the 7 October 2023 attacks, and broadening the Abraham Accords.
• Washington is considering acting as a security guarantor for a new regional alliance, potentially involving closer defense coordination among US allies in the Gulf.
• A key objective is normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a goal stalled by Riyadh's demand for tangible progress on Palestinian statehood and Gaza reconstruction.
• The plan includes implementing the next phase of Trump's Gaza strategy, negotiating a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and enforcing the 2024 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire to limit Hezbollah's capabilities.
• The strategy is being developed by senior advisers and multiple government agencies, with Trump privately describing it as 'something much bigger' for the region.

Background

This development follows a period of significant instability in the Middle East, including the Iran war and shifting security alliances. Previous reports indicated that Gulf states were hedging their security arrangements due to perceived US unreliability, while analysts debated whether a post-regime Iran could lead to a new regional order based on normalization or continued insecurity. The current plan represents an attempt to formalize US-led security structures in response to these shifts.

How outlets are covering it

Axios, the primary source, emphasizes the structural nature of the new plan and the uncertainty regarding ally buy-in. NDTV highlights the political risks, noting that the strategy may proceed regardless of the outcome of the October 27 Israeli elections or the US midterms. The Jerusalem Post focuses on the expansion of the Abraham Accords as a central achievement for the administration. All sources agree that the plan is not yet finalized, with one source describing it as 'cooking it, but it is not yet cooked.'

Why it matters

The success of this strategy could fundamentally alter the security architecture of the Middle East, potentially reducing Iranian influence and solidifying US alliances in the region. However, the plan's viability depends on resolving deep-seated disputes, particularly the Israel-Saudi normalization, which remains tied to the unresolved Palestinian issue. If successful, it could mark a shift from ad-hoc US interventions to a more structured, long-term regional security framework.

What to watch

The administration is expected to spend several more weeks finalizing the strategy. Key milestones include the Israeli legislative elections on October 27 and the US midterm elections in November, which could influence the political landscape for implementing the plan. Progress on the Israel-Saudi normalization and the next phase of the Gaza reconstruction plan will be critical indicators of the strategy's momentum.