Decoding China's Diplomatic and Military Strategies.

While the risk of war between China and the United States is rising, recent speeches by Chinese leader Xi Jinping do not necessarily indicate an imminent decision to go to war. Xi's interactions with the military suggest he may not yet trust its capabilities, and China's spending on police and security services is larger than its military spending. While the growing preparedness of the People's Liberation Army may make Beijing more likely to take risks, going to war with the United States over Taiwan would remain fraught with danger for the Chinese Communist Party and for China. Policymakers should take the risk seriously, but it has been true for decades and will remain true for the foreseeable future.