Russia Reacts to Finland and Sweden's NATO Membership.

Russia is likely to respond to Finland and Sweden's NATO membership with gray zone tactics and aggressive nuclear posturing in the short term, and with increased conventional deterrence and military maneuvers in the long term. NATO should plan for a resurgent Russia and manage both the short-term and long-term evolution of the Russian threat by increasing defenses and resilience against hybrid threats, reviewing its nuclear posture, upgrading the Swedish and Finnish reinforcement infrastructure, and fostering a sense of broader allied solidarity in Finland and Sweden.