Iran’s Hormuz Hold: Faction Rivalries Shape the Strait Deal

ISW-CTP’s August 5, 2026 update argues that Iran is seeking greater control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but internal factional divisions—anti-concessions, pro-concessions, and the ultrahardline Paydari—are slowing the Iran-Oman traffic agreement and shaping what concessions Tehran demands in exchange for any reopening. Reports differ on whether leadership has approved the deal, with some suggesting the Supreme Leader has not; Tehran appears to link strait concessions to broader economic and strategic gains and may seek to replace existing temporary routes with a lasting framework. The update also flags regional spillovers, including Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels, Iraqi anti-corruption campaigns provoking factional tensions, and Gulf states pursuing alternate energy corridors as US-hosted negotiations with Tehran continue. Overall, talks remain unsettled as Tehran weighs leverage over Hormuz amid ongoing war dynamics.