Netanyahu’s ‘Palestinian State’ Fear vs. Abbas’s Focus on Arab Citizens in Israel’s Oct. 27 Election

Key points

• Israel’s Oct. 27 election is closely contested, with no clear majority for either the coalition or opposition blocs, each polling at 51 seats.
• Mansour Abbas, leader of the Islamist Raam party, is central to coalition math; his party polls for six seats, potentially tipping the balance.
• Netanyahu’s campaign portrays Abbas as a 'danger from within' who would establish a Palestinian state, while Abbas emphasizes domestic issues like crime and housing for Israel’s 20% Arab population.
• A Maariv poll shows 48% of Israelis prefer Gadi Eisenkot as PM over Netanyahu (41%), and 54% of opposition voters would support a unity government only if led by their bloc.
• Arab parties gained one seat each in recent polls, reaching a combined 14 seats, while Likud fell to 18 seats, narrowing the gap between blocs.

Background

In late September, Israel’s Central Elections Committee disqualified Raam and the Joint List, but the Supreme Court is expected to rule on these bans by Oct. 17. This follows a similar disqualification attempt in 2023, where the court overturned the ban. The Oct. 7, 2023 attack has also intensified scrutiny of Netanyahu’s leadership, with opposition leaders demanding an investigation into alleged intelligence failures.

How outlets are covering it

The New York Times emphasizes the contrast between Netanyahu’s fear-mongering about Abbas and Abbas’s actual focus on domestic issues for Arab citizens. The Jerusalem Post highlights the deadlock in polls, with Eisenkot leading Netanyahu in head-to-head matchups, and notes that a majority of Israelis prefer a unity government over another election. AP News focuses on the potential for Arab voters to sway the election, given the tight race and the disqualification of major Arab parties. The outlets differ in emphasis: NYT focuses on the narrative clash, JPost on poll data, and AP on the broader impact of Arab voters.

Why it matters

The outcome of the Oct. 27 election will determine whether Netanyahu remains in power or faces a shift in leadership. The role of Arab voters and the potential for a unity government are critical, as neither bloc has a clear majority. The Supreme Court’s ruling on the disqualification of Arab parties could further alter the balance of power.

What to watch

The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the disqualification of Raam and the Joint List by Oct. 17. If the election results in a deadlock, a unity government may be formed, with the possibility of Eisenkot or another opposition leader taking the PM role. The outcome will depend on the final seat counts and the Supreme Court’s decision.