Atlantic circulation on the brink: new study suggests AMOC weakening near tipping point

A Science Advances study estimates the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could slow about 50% by 2100—a weakening stronger than some models predicted—potentially cooling northern Europe and altering rainfall in various regions. The researchers argue that including sea surface temperature and salinity improves forecasts, but experts caution there is substantial uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of the slowdown. While a catastrophic “collapse” is unlikely in the near term, the paper underscores a real risk of crossing a tipping point, prompting calls for nations to prepare for significant climate effects.