A new Nature Geoscience study finds the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weakening; if it collapses, Northern Europe could cool by about 5–15°C (9–27°F), but the global climate may warm overall as heat builds up in the ocean when the circulation slows. Greenland ice melt adds freshwater that further slows the current, and past weak periods tend to redistribute heat rather than reduce total planetary heat, suggesting a potential net increase in global warming as temperatures rise.
A Nature Communications study finds that human-caused warming is slowing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), with a possible near-future collapse. Using NASA data and climate models, researchers project that a weaker AMOC would alter atmospheric moisture and storms globally, intensifying North American—especially California—storms by the end of the century while reducing them in Greenland and the Arctic. Atmospheric rivers, the moisture-dense air streams that drive much of California’s rainfall, could become more frequent and wetter, increasing flood risk in some regions and changing water resources; ARs may also transport more moisture to the Southern Hemisphere and accelerate Antarctic ice melt. The greatest increases in AR activity are expected along North America’s West Coast, from Baja California to Alaska, while Arctic regions could see fewer ARs as the jet stream shifts. However, the outcome depends on future greenhouse gas emissions, making the scenario not guaranteed. The research highlights how a single major ocean current can ripple across global climate patterns and emphasizes potential adaptation, such as restoring landscapes to capture more water in drought-prone areas.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—a vast system that helps keep north-west Europe milder—may be weakening as the planet warms and could potentially shift to a different state or cause more volatile UK weather. Argo floats and other measurements suggest signs of instability and a possible tipping point, though scientists debate timing and the likelihood of a sudden collapse. A weaker or reorganized AMOC could alter storm tracks and rainfall, bringing colder, more variable winters to Britain even as global temperatures rise. While uncertainty remains, many scientists argue for emissions cuts to relieve pressure on this crucial ocean circulation, rather than waiting for certainty.
A climate-model study, using Greenland ice melt scenarios, suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may already be locked in toward collapse, with a 10% chance under peak 2025 emissions, rising to 23% in harsher melt scenarios—and potentially 100% by 2100 in the worst case. A collapse would trigger dramatic regional impacts, including sea-level rise along the U.S. East Coast, cooler temperatures for parts of Europe, and more extreme weather. The work is a preprint and debated, but it underscores the urgency of rapid emissions reductions to avert severe climate outcomes.
Ongoing heatwaves are shadowed by a large cool patch in the North Atlantic known as the “cold blob,” which scientists think may signal changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Fresh Greenland meltwater and altered heat exchange could slow the sinking of warm water, weakening AMOC and nudging the jet stream, potentially bringing more European heatwaves in the near term while raising the possibility of colder European conditions if the current weakens further. The science is still debated on exact causes and timing, but climate models generally project some AMOC weakening this century, underscoring the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate risk.
A new climate reanalysis-backed study links a persistent cold patch southeast of Greenland to a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). While surface heat loss has declined since 1955, deep-water temperatures drop as much as 1,000 meters below the surface, suggesting less warm water entering the region. If AMOC continues to weaken or collapses, Europe could cool, tropical rainfall patterns could be disrupted, and sea levels near the US East Coast could rise; however, scientists caution that the debate over the cold blob and AMOC's status is not yet settled.
A patch of unusually cold water in the subpolar North Atlantic, nicknamed the cold blob, has been linked to Europe’s heatwaves by influencing atmospheric circulation and the jet stream. While global temperatures rise, this region remains cooler due to ocean currents delivering less heat and Greenland meltwater adding freshwater, which may weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Scientists warn that a further slowdown or collapse of the AMOC could bring harsher European winters, droughts elsewhere, and higher sea levels, though a cold Atlantic patch does not erase warming and extreme heat can persist under certain jet-stream patterns.
A large cold patch nicknamed the 'cold blob' south of Greenland is cooling the North Atlantic by about 2°F since 1900, suggesting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening due to warming and fresh water from melting ice; a significant slowdown or collapse could raise U.S. East Coast sea levels, bring colder European winters, and trigger droughts in Africa.
Scientists link a persistent cooling anomaly south of Greenland—the North Atlantic 'cold blob'—to a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). A weaker AMOC could reduce the ocean's heat transport, shifting weather, storm tracks, and potentially accelerating sea-level rise along the U.S. East Coast, with the strongest impacts near Greenland, Iceland, and northern Europe.
A sediment core off Nova Scotia shows the Gulf Stream migrated north during the Younger Dryas, warming Atlantic Canada by up to 4–5°C and triggering changes in deep water circulation. This offers direct geological evidence that major Atlantic circulation reorganizations can occur during abrupt climate shifts, supporting models that a weakened AMOC under modern warming could reshape global ocean temperatures and weather patterns in coming decades.
Evidence cited by New Scientist shows the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weakening, allowing cold Greenland waters to pool in the North Atlantic and form a 'cold blob' that can disrupt the jet stream and drive extreme weather; some models warn of a potential climate tipping point by around 2040, though scientists debate whether the slowdown is driven more by oceanic processes or atmospheric forces.
A new analysis ties the North Atlantic 'cold blob' to a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), showing reduced heat transport into the region rather than increased surface heat loss. The finding suggests the AMOC is near a dangerous tipping point with wide climate implications, including potential changes to European winters and global weather, aligning with CMIP6 projections and recent studies indicating a possible slowdown or collapse mid-century.
New study links the Atlantic's cooling 'cold blob' south of Greenland to a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), implying reduced heat transport and a sign of a climate tipping point. If AMOC collapses, Northern Hemisphere temperatures could drop dramatically (10–15°C in parts of the north), with heat and drought disruptions across Europe and rising sea levels along the US East Coast. Yet the exact rate of AMOC weakening is uncertain, and some researchers attribute the blob to surface heat loss rather than interior transport. The findings come as policy moves to remove deep-sea monitoring instruments could hamper tracking of this critical system.
An unusually cool patch in the North Atlantic east of Newfoundland has persisted for about a year, potentially signaling a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that could eventually cool climates around Greenland, Iceland, and northern Europe if it lasts; however, scientists say a total AMOC collapse is unlikely before 2100 and the blob’s long‑term impact remains uncertain.
A cooling patch southeast of Greenland, nicknamed the cold blob or warming hole, is linked to a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). New work suggests freshwater from melting Greenland ice is driving the cooling, and a weaker AMOC could reduce heat transport to Europe, potentially sparking colder, longer winters—though the data are not yet conclusive and other factors may also be involved.
