Arab parties hold record leverage in Israel's 2026 election deadlock
Israel's October 27 election resulted in a stalemate, with neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor Gadi Eisenkot securing the 61 seats required to govern. Arab-led parties achieved a historic turnout, winning approximately 19 seats and positioning themselves as potential kingmakers. While Netanyahu rejects cooperation with Arab groups, the opposition bloc remains divided on whether to form a coalition with them to unseat the prime minister.
Key points
- Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats, while Eisenkot's opposition bloc has 48, leaving both short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.
- Arab parties, including the Joint List and Ra'am, are on track to win a record 19 seats, driven by unprecedented turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel.
- Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen offered support to the opposition to oust Netanyahu, but Eisenkot's bloc is split, with figures like Avigdor Lieberman refusing to partner with Arab parties.
- Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh, who was disqualified from the election, condemned the refusal of Jewish parties to cooperate with Arab groups as 'racism.'
- Analysts note that while the opposition could mathematically reach a majority with Arab support, political resistance within Eisenkot's bloc makes a coalition unlikely.
Background
This election follows a period of heightened tension for Arab citizens of Israel, including the disqualification of major Arab lists by the Central Elections Committee and the Supreme Court's pressure on Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh to withdraw his candidacy in October 2026. Previous coverage highlighted the potential for a repeat vote if no coalition is formed, as well as the growing influence of Arab parties in Israeli politics due to rising crime rates and perceived discrimination.
How outlets are covering it
Al Jazeera emphasizes the moral and political legitimacy of Arab parties, with Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh labeling the exclusion of Arab groups as 'racism' and highlighting the community's high turnout. The Financial Times provides a detailed analysis of the coalition math, noting that while the opposition could theoretically reach a majority with Arab support, internal divisions within Eisenkot's bloc, particularly from figures like Lieberman and Bennett, make a partnership unlikely. NPR focuses on the political implications of the deadlock, with former diplomat Alon Pinkas criticizing the opposition's reluctance to work with Arab parties as 'myopic and reckless,' while also noting that Netanyahu has explicitly rejected any cooperation with Arab-led groups.
Why it matters
The outcome of this election will determine the future of Israeli governance and the status of Arab citizens in the country. If the opposition fails to form a coalition with Arab parties, a second election may be necessary, prolonging political instability. Conversely, a coalition could mark a significant shift in Israeli politics, potentially leading to policy changes regarding Arab communities and the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
What to watch
The Central Elections Committee will finalize the seat counts, and the President of Israel will begin consultations to form a government. If no coalition is formed within the legal timeframe, a second election may be called. The opposition bloc must decide whether to pursue a coalition with Arab parties or risk a repeat vote, while Netanyahu may attempt to form a unity government or rely on a minority government with external support.
- Balad leader blasts ‘racist’ exclusion of Arab parties in Israel Al Jazeera
- Israel’s Jewish and Arab opposition parties should work together The Economist
- Ex-Israeli diplomat calls opposition's refusal to work with Arab parties 'reckless' NPR
- Israel’s Arabs seek a slice of power Financial Times
- Israel's Opposition Says It's Different From Netanyahu. Now It Must Prove It Haaretz
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