Badenoch’s Birmingham Speech: A Fight for the Right, Not a Coalition

Key points

• Badenoch pledged to abolish inheritance tax on main homes and raise the tax-free threshold for couples to £1 million, a policy estimated to cost £6 billion annually.
• She explicitly rejected a 'unite the right' coalition with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, criticizing their rhetoric on race and standards, and instead targeted middle-class voters who defected to the Liberal Democrats in 2024.
• The speech emphasized fiscal responsibility, including £13 billion in new welfare cuts and a pledge to approve a third runway at Heathrow, contrasting with Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s focus on social care and EU ties.
• Despite the unified party reception, the Conservatives lag in polls at 18%, behind Reform (22%) and Labour (26%), with internal fears that the party lacks sufficient campaign managers for a potential snap election.

Background

This conference follows Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s Labour conference in late September, where he proposed closer EU ties and social care reforms. The Conservatives, having suffered a historic defeat in the 2024 general election, are attempting to rebuild their brand after a 14-year period in power. Badenoch’s leadership has consolidated power since a potential challenge by Robert Jenrick in early 2026, who subsequently defected to Reform UK.

How outlets are covering it

Politico and the Financial Times agree that Badenoch’s strategy is a deliberate pivot away from competing with Reform UK on migration, instead targeting wealthier, middle-class voters in southern England. The BBC highlights the specific mechanics of the inheritance tax plan, noting it would cut the number of families paying the tax by more than half. However, rival parties and critics, including Labour chair Bridget Phillipson and Reform’s Robert Jenrick, argue the policies disproportionately benefit the wealthy and ignore the needs of ordinary families. While the FT notes the party’s internal unity, Politico points out the anxiety over election readiness, with activists citing a shortage of campaign managers.

Why it matters

The speech signals a strategic shift in the Conservative Party’s approach to the next general election, potentially due by 2029. By rejecting a right-wing coalition and focusing on fiscal policy, Badenoch aims to recover moderate voters. However, the party’s low polling numbers and internal resource constraints suggest a long road to regaining power, with the outcome of the next election likely hinging on whether the Conservatives can bridge the gap between their new policies and public support.

What to watch

The Conservatives will continue to prepare for a potential snap election, with Badenoch’s team holding weekly planning meetings. The party is expected to face scrutiny over its social care stance, as Labour pushes for a national care service. The next major test will be the October 28 budget and the subsequent spending review, where the Conservatives hope to expose Labour’s fiscal challenges.