Ben-Gvir Seeks Kingmaker Status in Deadlocked Israeli Election

Key points

• Polls indicate a tight race with no clear path to a governing majority, making smaller parties and Arab-led factions pivotal.
• Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party is projected to win 7-10 seats, giving him leverage to demand senior portfolios, specifically defense minister.
• Ben-Gvir advocates for the 'voluntary emigration' of Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank, aiming to reverse the 2005 Gaza disengagement.
• Over 500,000 first-time voters, aged 18-22, are expected to skew right, with 80% planning to vote and 16% supporting far-right parties.
• Tensions exist between Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir, with recent public statements questioning their alignment, though Netanyahu’s party has reaffirmed support for Ben-Gvir.

Background

This election follows a period of significant rightward shift in Israeli politics, including Ben-Gvir’s controversial incursions at Al-Aqsa in September 2026. Previous coverage highlighted the deadlocked nature of the blocs and the growing influence of far-right figures among youth. The 2022 election brought Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich into government, marking a turning point in mainstreaming hardline policies.

How outlets are covering it

Fox News emphasizes Ben-Gvir’s role as a 'kingmaker' and compares his rise to populist gains in Europe, citing his support for gun rights and tough prison conditions. Time Magazine details Ben-Gvir’s specific policy ambitions, including the removal of Palestinians from Gaza and annexation of the West Bank, noting his desire to pull Netanyahu further right. Al Jazeera and The World focus on the demographic shift, highlighting that young Jewish voters are leaning right, with 16% supporting far-right parties, and note the mainstreaming of far-right views. Former diplomat Danny Ayalon, cited by Fox News, criticizes Ben-Gvir for damaging Israel’s diplomatic standing and argues that crime has risen under his tenure. Ben-Gvir himself, in a Time interview, dismisses concerns about isolation, claiming strength brings respect, and insists he wants to support Netanyahu while pushing for a full right-wing government.

Why it matters

The outcome will determine whether Israel moves toward a maximalist vision of territorial control and ethnonationalism or maintains a more fragmented, fragile coalition. Ben-Gvir’s potential rise to defense minister could fundamentally alter Israel’s military and diplomatic posture, potentially deepening international isolation and altering the status quo in occupied territories. The deadlocked nature of the election means that smaller parties and Arab voter turnout will be decisive in shaping the next government.

What to watch

Voting concludes on October 27. Results will determine if Netanyahu can form a government with Ben-Gvir’s support or if a unity government with Eisenkot emerges. If no majority is reached, Israel may face a prolonged deadlock or a second election. Ben-Gvir’s party’s performance will dictate his leverage in coalition negotiations.