Israel 2026 Election: Likud Leads Early Count, but Coalition Deadlock Looms

Key points

• Likud leads early count with 27% of the vote after 100,000 ballots, but the right-wing bloc fell to 50 Knesset seats, short of the 61-seat majority.
• Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party holds 17% of the vote, while Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party sits at 9%, creating a fragmented political landscape.
• Ultra-Orthodox parties have not ruled out joining Eisenkot’s government if conscription laws are reasonable, despite his previous stance against including them.
• Naftali Bennett declared Netanyahu defeated and called for a new government, but cautioned that final results could change as votes are counted.
• US President Trump has expressed a desire for an Israeli government that excludes Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, citing settler violence.
• Arab voter turnout surged, with Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen calling the result historic and demanding the current government be replaced.

Background

The 2026 election was seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership since the 2023 Hamas attacks, with both blocs projected to fall short of a majority. Arab-led parties were expected to be decisive kingmakers, and tensions over ultra-Orthodox conscription exemptions and judicial reforms were key issues. The election followed a period of societal trauma, mass emigration, and institutional changes, with tens of thousands of expatriates returning to vote.

How outlets are covering it

The Jerusalem Post emphasizes the deadlock, noting that while Likud leads, neither bloc has the partners to form a government. It highlights the uncertainty surrounding ultra-Orthodox cooperation with Eisenkot and Trump’s stance on excluding Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. Fox News focuses on Bennett’s comeback, framing his Abraham Accords vision and economic diplomacy as a path to restore Israel’s international standing, while noting his party’s polling behind Likud and Yashar. It also highlights Bennett’s domestic pledges, including redirecting 30 billion shekels to families and reducing food prices by 30%. The two outlets differ in emphasis: JPost focuses on the immediate coalition crisis, while Fox News frames Bennett as a potential alternative leader with a broader regional vision.

Why it matters

The election outcome will determine Israel’s direction on Gaza, the West Bank, and international relations. A deadlock could lead to prolonged instability, while a new government under Bennett or Eisenkot could shift policies on settlements, conscription, and diplomacy. Trump’s stance on excluding Ben-Gvir and Smotrich adds external pressure, potentially influencing coalition negotiations and US-Israel relations.

What to watch

Coalition negotiations will begin in earnest, with Eisenkot and Bennett seeking partners to reach 61 seats. Ultra-Orthodox parties may decide whether to join Eisenkot’s government based on conscription laws. Trump’s stance on Ben-Gvir and Smotrich could influence the right-wing bloc’s ability to form a government. Final vote counts will determine whether the deadlock persists or if a clear majority emerges, potentially leading to a new government or a repeat election.