Israel's October 27 Election: Eisenkot's Yashar Leads Polls Amid Coalition Uncertainty

Key points

• Yashar, founded by Gadi Eisenkot in September 2025, leads polls with 20-23 projected seats, surpassing Likud.
• Eisenkot's platform centers on confronting Iran, dismantling Hamas, and ending ultra-Orthodox military exemptions.
• Neither the pro- nor anti-Netanyahu blocs are projected to secure a 61-seat majority, raising deadlock risks.
• Netanyahu faces tensions with IDF leadership over potential pre-election strikes on Iran.
• Eisenkot's coalition partners include Bennett, Liberman, and Golan, but agreement on the PM candidate remains unresolved.

Background

Eisenkot entered politics in 2022 via Benny Gantz's National Unity alliance but resigned in July 2025 to found Yashar. He previously served as IDF chief of staff (2015-2019) and joined Netanyahu's war cabinet after October 7, 2023, before leaving in June 2024 over strategic disagreements. His son Gal was killed in Gaza in December 2023, a loss Eisenkot cites as central to his political mission. The 2026 election follows three years of war, international isolation, and deep political polarization.

How outlets are covering it

The Jerusalem Post emphasizes Yashar's centrist security platform and coalition-building efforts. Time Magazine highlights Eisenkot's personal loss and moral authority, framing the election as a choice between healing and continued conflict. CNN focuses on Eisenkot's Mizrahi heritage and the political firestorm over race-baiting remarks by a Netanyahu ally, noting his contrast with Netanyahu's elite background. Haaretz reports on Netanyahu's threats to strike Iran before the election and tensions with IDF leadership, alongside Eisenkot's warning that Netanyahu will 'stop at nothing' to stay in power. Outlets differ on the likelihood of deadlock: CNN and Haaretz stress coalition uncertainty, while Time suggests Eisenkot's broad coalition may overcome arithmetic hurdles.

Why it matters

The election determines whether Israel will shift from Netanyahu's wartime leadership to a coalition focused on accountability and democratic reform. Eisenkot's potential victory could restore international standing and pursue regional diplomacy, while a Netanyahu win may deepen isolation and conflict. The outcome also hinges on whether Israel can form a stable government or face repeated elections due to fragmented coalitions.

What to watch

Voters cast ballots on October 27. If no bloc secures 61 seats, the president will task the most likely candidate with forming a government, potentially leading to negotiations or a second election. Eisenkot must agree on a PM candidate with coalition partners, while Netanyahu may face pressure from far-right allies to maintain power. The High Court has barred polling stations from sharing turnout data, and tensions over armed observers in Arab communities remain unresolved.