Trump’s Sanctions Waiver and Gerasimov’s Inflated Claims Define ISW’s October 17 Assessment

Key points

• Ukrainian military officially refuted Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov’s exaggerated battlefield claims from October 16.
• US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on the night of October 16 waiving key sanctions, restrictions, and tariff provisions against Russia under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act.
• ISW states this decision will help Russia finance and protract the war in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced east of Kramatorsk, while Russian forces advanced north of Kostyantynivka.
• Russia launched 332 drones and an unspecified number of missiles and loitering munitions against Ukraine overnight.
• Polish authorities warned that Russia may escalate sabotage attempts against Polish logistics infrastructure to disrupt the transportation of Western aid to Ukraine during Winter 2026-2027.

Background

This assessment follows a period of intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia. Previous ISW reports noted that Russia’s actual territorial gains were significantly lower than Kremlin claims, with Ukraine reversing some gains through Operation Vivaldi. The current situation reflects ongoing tensions over Western support and Russian attempts to leverage winter conditions to pressure Ukraine into capitulation.

How outlets are covering it

Kyiv Post and Critical Threats (ISW) provide the core factual assessment, highlighting the discrepancy between Russian claims and battlefield reality, as well as the impact of US policy changes. The Daily Beast offers a critical perspective, mocking Putin’s recent propaganda video and Gerasimov’s briefing as 'bogus' and 'exaggerated,' emphasizing the gap between Kremlin rhetoric and actual military performance. While Kyiv Post and ISW focus on the strategic and logistical implications of Trump’s sanctions waiver and the drone threat, The Daily Beast focuses on the political embarrassment and propaganda failures of the Russian leadership.

Why it matters

The combination of US sanctions waivers and Russian propaganda failures highlights the complex dynamics of the war. Trump’s executive order could provide Russia with crucial financial resources to sustain its campaign, while the refutation of Gerasimov’s claims and the ongoing drone threat underscore the persistent challenges Ukraine faces in countering Russian aggression and securing Western support. The potential for Russian sabotage in Poland adds a new dimension of risk to the supply chain for Ukrainian aid.

What to watch

The impact of Trump’s sanctions waiver on Russia’s war financing will be closely monitored. Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian drones using Starlink technology remains a key question. Polish authorities will likely increase security measures around logistics infrastructure to prevent Russian sabotage. The frontline situation around Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka will continue to evolve, with both sides attempting to gain tactical advantages.