Israel Votes as US Midterms Loom: Netanyahu Faces Eisenkot, Democrats Lead Polls

Key points

• Israel's election features a neck-and-neck race between Netanyahu's Likud and Eisenkot's Yashar party, with turnout expected to exceed 70%, the highest in half a century.
• US polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 8-9 points, with Trump's approval at 35-40%, but younger and non-white voters show lower enthusiasm than MAGA-aligned groups.
• The DOJ filed a third set of criminal charges against James Comey over alleged 2016 leaks, using a 'criminal information' to bypass the statute of limitations, which Comey's lawyers are seeking to dismiss.
• Trump administration efforts to influence elections, including a $1 million fraud bounty and lawsuits in California and Alaska, are being countered by legal preparations from Democratic and nonpartisan groups.
• A federal judge ruled that Maurene Comey was unlawfully fired by the DOJ, ordering retroactive reinstatement and back pay, citing violations of due process.

Background

This election cycle follows a period of heightened political tension, including a wave of suspicious mailings targeting congressional offices and election agencies in late October 2026, which the FBI is investigating. Financial markets have been analyzing potential outcomes of a Democratic 'Blue Wave' versus a Republican 'Red Wall' in the US midterms, with prediction markets favoring a Democratic takeover of the House. In Israel, this is the first election since the October 7 attacks, with voters weighing security concerns against domestic issues like cost of living and military service for Orthodox Jews.

How outlets are covering it

The Bulwark emphasizes the 'blue wave' narrative in the US, citing Reuters/Ipsos and FiftyPlusOne polls showing a 9-point Democratic lead, while noting the risk of a 2010-style backlash. It highlights the procedural stretch of the DOJ's charges against Comey and Trump's denial of knowledge. NPR presents a more cautious view, noting that while Democrats are favored in the House, the Senate is a toss-up, and enthusiasm among key Democratic groups like young voters (42%) and non-white voters (53%) lags behind pro-Trump groups. NPR also stresses that no credible evidence of voter fraud exists, despite Trump's claims. On Israel, The Bulwark notes the close race and high turnout, while NPR adds context on domestic issues like cost of living and military service, contrasting with international focus on Gaza. Both outlets agree on the significance of the Israel election but differ in emphasis on US polling nuances.

Why it matters

The outcomes of these elections will shape US domestic policy and Israel's foreign policy direction. A Democratic victory in the US could lead to legislative changes, while a Netanyahu loss in Israel could shift the country toward diplomacy and away from extremism. The DOJ's actions against Comey and election interference efforts test the limits of executive power and democratic norms, potentially setting precedents for future elections.

What to watch

US voters will cast ballots next week, with results potentially taking days to finalize due to close races. In Israel, a clearer picture of the parliamentary majority may emerge by Wednesday, but coalition negotiations could take weeks. The DOJ's charges against Comey will face legal challenges, and Trump administration election interference efforts may lead to further court battles. Democrats will need to maintain turnout among younger and non-white voters to secure a full sweep, while Republicans will focus on defending Senate seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2024.