
Measuring Momentum: Can the Red Sox's hot stretch be quantified?
The Red Sox are on an eight-game win streak, and players say momentum feels real, but quantifying it is tricky. A Globe analysis of Retrosheet data finds that the longer a team has won in a row, the higher its next-game win probability (about .516 after two wins, .535 after three, and .551 after five), with losses showing the opposite pattern. Still, confounding factors like team quality and randomness make momentum more a reflection of underlying strength than a mysterious force.












